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The first sign of the apocalypse


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"The first sign of the apocalypse"

 

Was released this morning. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?

 

 

Rob looks less than excited for this e-bike release, and levy is failing at trying to make this interview interesting. 

 

Edited by ATXZJ
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At 46 pounds I fail to see the benefit for the typical rider. Feels like the extra leverage you get from a motor is offset by the fact that you now have to push a much heavier bike up the hill. In California, where you have long, smooth, sustained climbs I bet it works a lot better than central Texas where short, steep, technical climbs are more common.

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11 minutes ago, AustinBike said:

 In California, where you have long, smooth, sustained climbs I bet it works a lot better than central Texas where short, steep, technical climbs are more common.

After riding there for a lot of years, moving here 13 years ago had me scratching my head. My legs didn't mind the long climbs, but the short, punchy climbs over and over took a lot of getting used to.

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8 hours ago, AustinBike said:

At 46 pounds I fail to see the benefit for the typical rider. Feels like the extra leverage you get from a motor is offset by the fact that you now have to push a much heavier bike up the hill. In California, where you have long, smooth, sustained climbs I bet it works a lot better than central Texas where short, steep, technical climbs are more common.

Most of have a walking mode to help with pushing. 

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24 minutes ago, AustinBike said:

That's cool, didn't know that. Will be interesting to see the comments if that feature ever fails 😉

The guide I had in CA who was on a Rocky Mountain e-bike had to stop multiple times because the motor wasn't working properly. He went through some sort of process to "recalibrate" it and on about the third try he was back in business. I don't recall him ever mentioning a walking / push mode, but either way a "walking guide" would have served me no purpose at all.    

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That is one of my main contentions on e-bikes. I can't even get my goddamn Garmin to connect to my phone all the time, so do I want to ruin my sport by bringing more technology in?

Ultimately, if I ever get to the point where I can't ride this can be an alternative, but that is a long time from now and I am pretty sure that e-bikes will be huge for commuters in the future but will be DOA in the mountain bike world.

As a technology person by trade, sometimes too much technology actually takes you backwards.

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On a scale of 1 to 5 (5 being "most acceptable") rate the following scenarios that one could have for riding an e-bike.

1. I'm 80 years old with a bad back, 3 knee replacements, and a heart condition. I've been riding MTBs all my life, and an e-bike is the only way I can enjoy even a glimmer of the sport I love.

2. I'm 55 years old with a bad back. I can either ride 30 mins on a pedal bike or 2 hours on an e-bike. I almost always choose the e-bike because my wife is a bitch and I'd rather be gone for the full afternoon. 

3. I'm a 45 year old father of a high school racer who can ride circles around me. I really enjoy spending time with her, but she is starting to not like riding with me as much because I'm always behind on the big climbs and start to bonk when she is just getting warmed up.

4. I'm 38 years old and ride a pedal MTB 2-3 times a week. I consider myself in pretty good shape and have no interest in replacing my regular MTB for my normal day-to-day rides. However, I just booked the trip of a lifetime to my dream destination. There are too many trails and not enough time. Not to mention, I don't know if I'll ever get to come back. I'm going to rent an e-bike so that I can maximize my time there and experience more trails than I could on a pedal bike. 

5. I'm 25 and love shredding downhills. I live very close to a private MTB only trail system, so I'm going to buy an e-bike so I can reduce my efforts on the boring fire road climbs and spend more time doing the part that I actually enjoy. 

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14 minutes ago, notyal said:

1. I'm 80 years old with a bad back, 3 knee replacements, and a heart condition. I've been riding MTBs all my life, and an e-bike is the only way I can enjoy even a glimmer of the sport I love.

This is the scenario I have in mind. But I sure hope they have much better battery life/range in 2054. Assuming Specialized is the ebest in class, I'll have to cut back my big weekend ride mileage by quite a bit. I can't imagine being 80 with a bad back, 3 knee replacements, and a heart condition, only to be 30 miles from the trail head with a dead battery and a 45 pound bike. 

 

https://www.specialized.com/us/en/turbo-calculator/app?productId=170511&mode=TRAIL_SPORT&terrain=HILLS&stops=FEW

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This is why:

Whistler - Dark Crystal

For those not into DH/Mtn riding, I guess I can see the mockery - though I wonder how many have actually been on an ebike. I demoed a Pivot Shuttle and it was awesome. Granted, I'm accustomed to riding DH, and my DH rig is ~ 40 lbs. The Pivot weighs in at ~45.5 lbs. It seemed a bit bulky at first, but after 5 min., I got used to it. Even at 45 lbs, it jumped just fine, felt balanced in the air, etc. Riding it at the trails we're building at the church, it made the uphills so much fun! As a trail builder, it opened up the possibility of doing flow trails uphill. Imagine getting done with the downhill and then pointing uphill and getting to do more flow and even jumps on the way back up. Sweet!

We spend our summers in Whistler and we've done it for years. We have yet to hit half the trails outside the bike park. Anyone who thinks any type of assist in going uphill (ebike, lift, shuttle) is cheating, I challenge you to do 6 hours (or less) of DH. It's physically challenging and, to a much lesser extent than uphill, if you get tired and make a mistake, you're going to get hurt. There are epic trails outside the park, but the climbs to get there . . . oof. I would totally love to have an ebike up there. The riding level in Canada is insane. Shift right on everything - a black here is a blue there. And outside the park, shift right again. Honestly, it's a testament to a different mindset - I'm surprised (but pleased) the municipality allows some of those trails to exist, as they cannot only be treacherous, but have high consequence for failure.

A trail like Dark Crystal illustrates the point. By the time you get to the trailhead and are ready to get down to business, you've already had a significant workout. Even though a lot of the climbing is on fire road, these are roads built for 4x4 access and they can be very steep - get off the bike and push steep. If I had the cash to buy two of these things (no way I could get one and not get one for my wife) I would, though we'd get the Kenevo. No way would I shame anyone for riding one those up there other than out of pure envy.

 

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30 minutes ago, notyal said:

On a scale of 1 to 5 (5 being "most acceptable") rate the following scenarios that one could have for riding an e-bike.

1. I'm 80 years old with a bad back, 3 knee replacements, and a heart condition. I've been riding MTBs all my life, and an e-bike is the only way I can enjoy even a glimmer of the sport I love.

2. I'm 55 years old with a bad back. I can either ride 30 mins on a pedal bike or 2 hours on an e-bike. I almost always choose the e-bike because my wife is a bitch and I'd rather be gone for the full afternoon. 

3. I'm a 45 year old father of a high school racer who can ride circles around me. I really enjoy spending time with her, but she is starting to not like riding with me as much because I'm always behind on the big climbs and start to bonk when she is just getting warmed up.

4. I'm 38 years old and ride a pedal MTB 2-3 times a week. I consider myself in pretty good shape and have no interest in replacing my regular MTB for my normal day-to-day rides. However, I just booked the trip of a lifetime to my dream destination. There are too many trails and not enough time. Not to mention, I don't know if I'll ever get to come back. I'm going to rent an e-bike so that I can maximize my time there and experience more trails than I could on a pedal bike. 

5. I'm 25 and love shredding downhills. I live very close to a private MTB only trail system, so I'm going to buy an e-bike so I can reduce my efforts on the boring fire road climbs and spend more time doing the part that I actually enjoy. 

These are 5 distinct use cases all of which would be fine for e-bikes (because, let's face it, we should not have a position on what people ride.)

But I will make 2 counters to this:

1. These use cases are a pretty small niche and the number of people in each of the groups is pretty small. Really too small for the big brands to continue to develop/market e-MTBs (commuters will be a viable alternative).

2. Land usage rights will be an issue for these bikes. It is already hard to justify dropping $4K on a bike to ride trails around here. Imagine the math of adding ANOTHER $4K for an e-bike. And if your contention is that this will supersede  the MTB and become someone's only bike, imagine the difficulty in shelling out the $4K for a bike that they can only ride on SOME trails.

So, that being said, #3 is unlikely to happen because your kid can ride anywhere and will say "OK boomer" when you tell them they can only ride on some trails.

#4 is a great use case for a rental. I see a business model around renting being more viable than a business model around buying.

I just see 1, 2 and 5 as not large enough sectors of the bike economy to merit developing/marketing. Just like the industry said we can only have 2 wheel sizes and 26" was killed because there was no longer enough support, they are going to have to decide if, based on their thin margins and tough business environments, they can support 2 completely different bike choices. One is larger and less expensive to maintain and the other is a niche and very expensive to have a presence.

Let's also consider that the global economy is starting to sputter, and in economic downturns businesses cut product lines, they don't expand. Laugh all you want, but coronavirus might be the death of e-MTBs. The majority of the supply chain is in China today, think that is on the front burner right now or the back burner?

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Honestly, I have no problems with any of my scenarios, even #5 that was designed to get the most hate. The only one I have a problem with is one I didn't add:

6. I'm 35 (or 45 or it doesn't really matter) and bought an e-bike to take to very popular multi-use parks like Walnut Creek on the weekend, with no concern for whether or not they are allowed, and ride it like a dick. 

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8 minutes ago, El Gringo said:

This is why:

Whistler - Dark Crystal

For those not into DH/Mtn riding, I guess I can see the mockery - though I wonder how many have actually been on an ebike. I demoed a Pivot Shuttle and it was awesome. Granted, I'm accustomed to riding DH, and my DH rig is ~ 40 lbs. The Pivot weighs in at ~45.5 lbs. It seemed a bit bulky at first, but after 5 min., I got used to it. Even at 45 lbs, it jumped just fine, felt balanced in the air, etc. Riding it at the trails we're building at the church, it made the uphills so much fun! As a trail builder, it opened up the possibility of doing flow trails uphill. Imagine getting done with the downhill and then pointing uphill and getting to do more flow and even jumps on the way back up. Sweet!

We spend our summers in Whistler and we've done it for years. We have yet to hit half the trails outside the bike park. Anyone who thinks any type of assist in going uphill (ebike, lift, shuttle) is cheating, I challenge you to do 6 hours (or less) of DH. It's physically challenging and, to a much lesser extent than uphill, if you get tired and make a mistake, you're going to get hurt. There are epic trails outside the park, but the climbs to get there . . . oof. I would totally love to have an ebike up there. The riding level in Canada is insane. Shift right on everything - a black here is a blue there. And outside the park, shift right again. Honestly, it's a testament to a different mindset - I'm surprised (but pleased) the municipality allows some of those trails to exist, as they cannot only be treacherous, but have high consequence for failure.

A trail like Dark Crystal illustrates the point. By the time you get to the trailhead and are ready to get down to business, you've already had a significant workout. Even though a lot of the climbing is on fire road, these are roads built for 4x4 access and they can be very steep - get off the bike and push steep. If I had the cash to buy two of these things (no way I could get one and not get one for my wife) I would, though we'd get the Kenevo. No way would I shame anyone for riding one those up there other than out of pure envy.

 

This is a viable business model. e-MTB could remove the need for lifts, and a 46 pound bike is not a problem, that used to be the DH weight back in the day.

I could see a huge opportunity for a place like Whistler or with someone renting these at a bike park.

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It's hard to qualify who should or should not have access to an e-bike.

I agree with AustinBike in that this will resolve itself over time. The marketplace can only sustain so many $6-8k e-bikes. The people that have the available cash will buy them first and the others will finance their purchase on a CC. Once that 20+% interest CC payment starts raping them monthly they wont be in any rush to go out and buy another e-bike. You only have to look at the progress of smartphone development to see that most e-bikes will be "obsolete" by the time they are paid off.  Lastly, a growing number of americans are leveraged AF and only a fraction of boomer generation got the last of the good retirements that allow for such toys. This is a very, very small segment of the cycling subculture of MTB, and also who I see most on higher end E-mtbs. Once bones meet rocks a few times, they'll most likely find a safer hobby.

 

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, notyal said:

6. I'm 35 (or 45 or it doesn't really matter) and bought an e-bike to take to very popular multi-use parks like Walnut Creek on the weekend, with no concern for whether or not they are allowed, and ride it like a dick. 

I don't doubt that there will be a lot of this (nay, at least enough to be problematic). Like I mentioned earlier, "brap bros" with little or no experience with riding and the cultural norms that come with it WILL be a problem.

I see no problem is the kind of scenarios mentioned where an e-mtb is an awesome option. Something feels like the industry is pushing e-mtbs as if they expect them to mostly or entirely replace pedal bikes. I know that won't happen, but the assumption that more gadgets = better irks me. Maybe it's in my head and I am being paranoid. 

Edited by mack_turtle
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I disagree about the whole "it will price itself out of the market" argument. If we know anything about technology, the top end will keep increasing, but the manufacturers will trickle the tech and price it for the masses. I don't ride with many people that currently ride regular bikes under 5-6K and some much more. The Turbo Levo SL Comp is only $6525. If there is an offering like Specy's new SL line that adds a little pedal assist at only a 5 pound weight penalty priced around $1000-1500 above the pedal only version, I bet that segment is bigger than you think.

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5 minutes ago, notyal said:

I disagree about the whole "it will price itself out of the market" argument. If we know anything about technology, the top end will keep increasing, but the manufacturers will trickle the tech and price it for the masses. I don't ride with many people that currently ride regular bikes under 5-6K and some much more. The Turbo Levo SL Comp is only $6525. If there is an offering like Specy's new SL line that adds a little pedal assist at only a 5 pound weight penalty priced around $1000-1500 above the pedal only version, I bet that segment is bigger than you think.

It might, and you could certainly be right.

I think we're looking outside from a very, very small bubble that is the MTB community. Sure, we on this forum have expensive bikes and also see some carbon whunderbikes on the trail but as a whole i think thats a small fraction of mountain bikes sold.

I've seen a growing push to build cheaper aluminum bikes. 

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