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The first sign of the apocalypse


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23 hours ago, mack_turtle said:

 "The masses" are people to whom spending $1k on a toy seems astronomical, and I doubt that a decent e-mtb is going to make that price point, even with the trickle-down effect of technology.

So much this^

 

Like a lot of the other trends of late, ebikes will pass once the consumers get a real idea of their "value". Not worth the outlay just to ride the same switchback/ledge nightmares that exist here, only slightly faster. 

 

Edited by ATXZJ
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"The masses" scoff at spending over $3k on a bike, but there are countless companies that keep making them (and that's entry level). If any of this "eMTB are going to die because they are too expensive for the average Joe" were true, regular MTBs would have died years ago too. Choosing an e-bike or a pedal bike is comparable to choosing between full suspension and a hardtail (feature vs. price wise). Some will never want it. Some will grow to never want to ride without it. 

 

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As with all consumer product efforts... Sifting takes place... And some will fall by the wayside... Others will rise to the top.

And BTW...

The Stromer ST1 X is not an mtb.

Screen Shot 2020-02-13 at 10.15.28 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-02-13 at 10.15.52 AM.png


On high-end consumerism...

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/inside-the-consumer-mind/201610/the-emotions-luxury

Edited by RidingAgain
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Here's a 2019 $6,000 new at retail mountain bike... That sold for "Best Offer" below $4,500 on eBay yesterday.

That's a more that 25% drop in value in less than maybe 12 months of ownership (actually... correction... less than 5 months ownership). And this is for a very popular, well established mountain bike brand model. 

Here's the owner description...

"...Up for sale my 2019 Santa Cruz Bronson S Build size Large with 37mm Reserve Carbon wheels. I bought the bike brand new sometime in October. Bike in immaculate condition with less than 250 miles. Please let me know if you have any question."
 

Screen Shot 2020-02-13 at 10.38.19 AM.png

Edited by RidingAgain
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41 minutes ago, notyal said:

"The masses" scoff at spending over $3k on a bike, but there are countless companies that keep making them (and that's entry level). If any of this "eMTB are going to die because they are too expensive for the average Joe" were true, regular MTBs would have died years ago too. 

You have a point. I still wonder what it would take for e-mtbs to become mainstream in this regard. You can make a relaible FS bike with a price tag "for the masses" but what will it take for the price of those batteries to come down? I don't know anything about that market. How much artificial markup is on that product and how much is just that it's expensive to produce? Is there a more commerically viable alternative on the horizon that will make expensive, environmentally destructive li-ions obsolete?

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There's a clash of philosophical worldviews playing out here that is bigger than bikes. Some of us see things in the context of ideal forms (thanks, Plato). To me, a mountain bike is an expression of a form, just like a cat, or a a game of baseball. You can vary the manifestation of that form to some degree, but when you tweak that object beyond it's horizon, it ceases to represent that form. It's now something else. If a cat starts laying eggs or grows wings, it's no longer a cat. If people on a baseball field start tackling one another and kicking the ball around instead of hitting it with a bat, they're not playing baseball anymore.

In that thread, when you put a motor on a mountain bike, it's "no longer a mountain bike." 

I am not saying that this perspective is superior to anyone else's. I have a pretty strong sense that categories are important, that compartmentalizing my perception of reality is what keeps me sane.  It points to an explanation of why some people think e-mtbs are sacrilege and others shrug and say "so what?"

Edited by mack_turtle
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11 minutes ago, RidingAgain said:

You'd need to define this specific "...mainstream...", mack_turtle.

Will we find e-bikes in Walmart at some stage? Or are you being more specific to mountain biking speciality stores/consumers?
 

 

15 minutes ago, mack_turtle said:

I still wonder what it would take for e-mtbs to become mainstream in this regard. 

I think I made it clear. e-mtbs = mountain bikes that can be ridden reliably on actual trails, not trashy BSOs (bicycle-shaped objects).

Edited by mack_turtle
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6 minutes ago, mack_turtle said:

You have a point. I still wonder what it would take for e-mtbs to become mainstream in this regard. You can make a relaible FS bike with a price tag "for the masses" but what will it take for the price of those batteries to come down? I don't know anything about that market. How much artificial markup is on that product and how much is just that it's expensive to produce? Is there a more commerically viable alternative on the horizon that will make expensive, environmentally destructive li-ions obsolete?

I would say that "for the masses" is a sub $1,000 bike and I don't see how you get there in an eMTB.

If you look at the stratification of the market (I did a marketing project on this), you'll find that as you move up closer to $4K in spending, people *generally* tend to fall into 2 categories (look at your friends):

1. I spent a ton of money on my bike and it is my only bike, all in on this one. I ride it on the streets, walnut, city park, brushy, etc.

2. I spent a lot of money on a primary bike, but I am investing in the sport. I have a FS bike, a gravel bike, a singlespeed, a road bike. I will not put all of my eggs in a single basket, but I will have a bike that I spent more money on (primary) but I don't skimp on the others.

For the first group, they are a one bike person, they won't get an e-bike because of some of the limitations we've discussed. The second group would totally get an e-bike, at the right price. 

The problem, is that #2 is a sliver of the overall market. It might be almost everyone you know, but you know a sliver of the market. The other challenge is getting the bike to the right market price to add it to the collection.

This is not a bike, technology or (possibly) even a trail access issue. This is an addressable market issue. Anything, with a large enough addressable market, can be successful. Look at Taco Bell - mediocre, cheap food, huge market, huge success. And then look at all of the "artisanal taco" shops that Austin had that went under. The addressable market for a handcrafted $4 taco is tiny, $1 tacos rule the world.

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4 minutes ago, mack_turtle said:

In that thread, when you put a motor on a mountain bike, it's "no longer a mountain bike." 

Good post. For me, a throttle would certainly be in the "no longer a mountain bike" range. So long as you must pedal to when going against gravity, I'm willing to consider it grey area. 

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Just now, RidingAgain said:

I thought you were referring to mainstream consumer... Above you're speaking about product development for specific application.

OK, mainstream consumer of mountain bikes. people who are willing to buy a "real" bike, not department store POS. that does not exclude people who have a relatively humble budget. without a scientific understanding of this market, I'd say the person who is willing to spend over $500 on a bicycle fits in there. you can tell by the online buyer's guides that the market for a bike around $1,000 has some pull.

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9 minutes ago, AustinBike said:

This is not a bike, technology or (possibly) even a trail access issue. This is an addressable market issue. Anything, with a large enough addressable market, can be successful. Look at Taco Bell - mediocre, cheap food, huge market, huge success. And then look at all of the "artisanal taco" shops that Austin had that went under. The addressable market for a handcrafted $4 taco is tiny, $1 tacos rule the world.


And then there's premium priced Chicl-fil-A that... "...Makes More Per Restaurant Than McDonald's, Starbucks and Subway Combined … and It's Closed on Sundays."

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/320615

Edited by RidingAgain
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7 minutes ago, AustinBike said:

The problem, is that #2 is a sliver of the overall market. It might be almost everyone you know, but you know a sliver of the market. The other challenge is getting the bike to the right market price to add it to the collection.

What's a good analogous product that we already know? tandem bikes, maybe event tandem mountain bikes, come to mind. mountain unicycles? 36" wheeled bikes? mountain handcycles? there's a market for those things, but which of them was a popular target that several manufacturers tried to hit at the same time, leaving only a few to continue?

examples of things that were small at first that went mainstream: fat bikes... ?

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27 minutes ago, mack_turtle said:

OK, mainstream consumer of mountain bikes. people who are willing to buy a "real" bike, not department store POS. that does not exclude people who have a relatively humble budget. without a scientific understanding of this market, I'd say the person who is willing to spend over $500 on a bicycle fits in there. you can tell by the online buyer's guides that the market for a bike around $1,000 has some pull.


So you're fitting e-mountain bikes into a specific, already defined consumer scope... Consumers who have enough interest/experience — and expendable income — regarding mountain biking, to jump in at the $500-$1,000 price range.

The answer to this would be that an e-mountain bike that was able to properly handle mountain bike trails would not be available new at that price range. Which means that the buyer would need to consider the second hand market... Or realize that a new e-mtb is simply not within their financial means, and look at a traditional mtb. Which is a perfectly normal consumer scenario... Timex vs. Rolex.

Edited by RidingAgain
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2 hours ago, AustinBike said:

Now the tech folks are weighing in: https://www.wired.com/review/specialized-mens-turbo-levo-comp

While I agree with 99% of what is in this article, the $10-12K price tag means that few, if any will buy this bike. While my wife did not have an issue with my last $4K bike purchase, I have to think a $10K+ purchase will not be as easy to justify, especially if the trail choices are limited.

To be fair, the $10-12K price tag is the upper end. The price at the top of the article is $5,950. The Kenevo (which is the model we're interested in) is listed on their site at $6,345 (marked down from $7,550). That price point is still steep, but definitely has us thinking about it. The climbs in the videos I posted generally take an hour or so to complete. So to do 3 downhill runs in a day, you're looking at 3+ hours of climbing alone (mountains, not hills). For us, $6,345 is a strong value proposition to multiply the time we get to spend riding the fun stuff. A season pass to Whistler Bike Park is ~$600. While we would never consider foregoing the bike park, $6,400 to open up the ability to do more laps outside the park would be awesome!

It's also interesting to note that the Resort Municipality of Whistler is (kind of) embracing eMTBs, allowing access on many trails, except in the alpine zones: https://www.whistler.ca/services/transportation/cycling/e-bikes. I think the issue of grizzly bear management may have to do with the increased traffic, but I'm not sure. I will say that an eMTB would have been nice to have last summer, when my wife got boxed-in by a grizzly. Her only escape route was a very steep downhill we had just come down. The bear was more interested in me, but I had a clear escape route. An eMTB would have given her a viable option to clear the area more efficiently.

On that note, the bear activity was highly elevated last year (probably because of fires in surrounding areas the year before) and this was the first year we (my wife) were actually charged by a bear. We did this run Rock Work Orange - Korova Milk Bar - Wizard's Burial Ground. WBG is gnarly and my wife was gassed. She bailed out there. Given our encounters up there, we all would have felt better if she had one more tool in her quiver to get her back to the truck.

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7 minutes ago, RidingAgain said:


So you're fitting e-mountain bikes into a specific, already defined consumer scope... Consumers who have enough interest/experience — and expendable income — regarding mountain biking, to jump in at the $500-$1,000 price range.

The answer to this would be that an e-mountain bike that was able to properly handle mountain bike trails would not be available new at that price range.

Yes. I am interested to see what it will take to put a price tag on such a product to make it attainable to that part of the market. It's possible, but it will take time. Or maybe it never will come. Is it worth it? 

 

I think that's one more nudge to the civilization-ending trajectory we all love so blindly. I would rather that day never come for the same reason Edward Abbey wanted to tear up the roads that take tourists to the Grand Canyon (go read Desert Solitaire before you judge that perspective). But I don't have a significant say in it.

Edited by mack_turtle
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2 minutes ago, mack_turtle said:

Yes. I am interested to see what it will take to put a price tag on such a product to make it attainable to that part of the market. It's possible, but it will take time.

I would rather that day never come for the same reason Edward Abbey wanted to tear up the roads that take tourists to the Grand Canyon (go read Desert Solitaire before you judge that perspective). But I don't have a significant say in it.


If the powers that be think there's profit to be made in cheap e-mtbs... Then they will make them. Profit potential is a huge driver in consumer product development.

On roads for increasing tourism...

In 1972 my family spent a week in Negril, Jamaica. Seven miles of white sand beach, the clearest blue water, and not a soul in sight. By the '80s that had all changed.

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