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The first sign of the apocalypse


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Just returned from 2 full days in CO touring Colleges with the youngest.  I have never in my life seen so many eBikes on the roads and one on a trail.

I would say in commuting situations they were greater than 50% use in Boulder, and I saw all sorts of configurations.

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That is a perfect use case.

I think that there is an arc that we'll see in demand. Once battery life starts diminishing and you are just stuck with a heavier bike, the fad will die down a bit. I think we are in the earlier days of ebikes. Based on how long laptop batteries last, I would think that before the end of the college stint the batteries will be mostly depleted.

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You don't know much about modern Lithium battery technology.

If you are leaving a laptop on the charger full time and haven't set the Battery Management System to charge no more than 70%, then a Nickel-based Lithium battery will have a shortened lifespan. (Nickel-based are used in application where low weight is a preference)

Vehicle power applications will likely have the BMS designed to avoid over-charging. Tesla cars use the 2170 and 18650 batteries (same as used in many laptops) and are expected to provide a million miles on the car over the lifespan of the battery pack. The Specialized warranty for their e-bike batteries is 300 charge cycles without significant degradation and also use the 2170 and 18650 cylindrical sizes.

In other cases where a good BMS is not used it may be a matter of owner discipline to get full use from modern batteries by unplugging the charger once it indicates the device has been fully recharged if the BMS is unable to manage this on its own.

Edited by Ridenfool
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I would venture to guess that a.) bike manufacturers are not necessarily using the same technology as auto manufacturers and b.) a lot of these electric bikes are probably built around cheap OEM deigns. I would guess that the average electric bike has more in common with a MagicShine light than with a Tesla.

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There are always outliers to be found. Without statistical comparison an instance as you have referenced doesn't provide meaningful bearing on whether folks can or can't get a long lifetime out of the product. The sort of response you offer is commonly called "spreading FUD" (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) and is more of an emotional tactic than it is statistically representative. Most anti-electric (bike, car, etc.) arguments are based more in ego and emotion than they are in meaningful fact.

For example, internal combustion engine vehicles catch on fire much more often percentage-wise than do electric cars. (or bikes for that matter) Showing a photo of one burning shouldn't prevent people from owning an ICE car as the statistical probability of a catastrophic fire is still very, very low. Same goes for the e-bikes. Though, granted, there is zero chance of a pedal bike catching fire.

This exposure to fire when compared to an ICE vehicle is greatly reduced with a battery powered vehicle. Though some manufacturers have made poor choices that have led to greater risk exposure, such as the recent battery recalls for Chevy Bolt, Porche Taycan, etc. The knowledge of their (pouch) battery design lending itself to catastrophic failure existed and this potential problem was widely known before they began production. The outcome should reflect upon those engineers' specific choices more than upon the vehicle class.

The same can be said of e-bikes. You buy the brands with lower quality components and you get what you pay for.

This has been true about mountain bikes all along, has it not?

Are you saying you believe that Trek, Giant, Specialized, etc. would put less effort in making their e-bikes reflect the high standards of quality their pedal bikes have earned over the years?

There is no reason for the manufacturers to not use the same technology in e-bikes that is used in e-cars. Economies of scale indicate the same batteries, electronics, and similar firmware/software can easily be applied in all applications. I cobbled together a robust solar charging, lithium battery, BMS/Inverter system for my van from parts available on Amazon. This is a well-established industry and quality tech is easy to come by.

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On 8/8/2022 at 9:58 AM, Taco Man said:

Just returned from 2 full days in CO touring Colleges with the youngest.  I have never in my life seen so many eBikes on the roads and one on a trail.

I would say in commuting situations they were greater than 50% use in Boulder, and I saw all sorts of configurations.

Got to ride my buddies levo SL in telluride, climbing at 9-10k ft, and it was a total game changer. Even on the lowest setting. I honestly thought I had a flat rear tire when I got back on my bike. Absolutely changed my opinion of e bikes in certain applications and would buy one in a second for places with real climbing.

An ebike in CTX?  No way. I'd think only fentanyl can make those trails less miserable in the summer😁

 

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1 hour ago, AustinBike said:

Tom’s point was college students and commuting. I’m gonna guess there are a lot of cheap electric bikes there. And a lot of electric scooters. Go through the bike racks at UT and tell me how many cheap bikes you see vs. Santa Cruz or Pivots.

... and how many of them were on fire? 😁

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On 8/9/2022 at 8:52 PM, ATXZJ said:

Got to ride my buddies levo SL in telluride, climbing at 9-10k ft, and it was a total game changer. Even on the lowest setting. I honestly thought I had a flat rear tire when I got back on my bike. Absolutely changed my opinion of e bikes in certain applications and would buy one in a second for places with real climbing.

An ebike in CTX?  No way. I'd think only fentanyl can make those trails less miserable in the summer😁

 

That sums it up nicely. Especially relating to the "feels like I have a flat tire" bit. 😳

I appreciate having the choice. When I'm having an off day and climbs are taking away from my enjoyment of the ride I can opt for a little help with the pain, extend a ride that I might have otherwise cut short, and focus on the bits that are fun to me.

On days that I'm feeling my oats, the bike will be dialed down to effectively only compensate for the extra twenty pounds of weight being carried, and I charge the climbs with pedal power, get to experience the pain and sweat my ass off. Though, honestly, it also makes riding in the excessive heat somewhat more bearable as well, as I control my core temp more easily by opting for a little help rather than pushing harder than I should in those conditions.

The pedal assist aspect offers options that I have found gets me onto the trail more often, riding longer distance, and knowing that no matter what, I'm going to have a good time.

Choice is always better than no choice.

Edited by Ridenfool
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In the Brevard, NC area, almost no trails allow e-bikes of any kind.  As I was climbing 2800ft on a forest road, I thought this would be a nice application for an e-bike so you could get more than a single run in a day.  But then the hike-a-bike climb on the singletrack had me reconsider completely that.  My 26lbs bike was enough of a chore to carry up the rooty and super steep (climbing straight up iso lines).  I couldn't have imagined doing that with a 50lbs bike.  I started to understand another reason why e-bikes may be banned in some areas.  That was a 5.5hr ride for me (ride to the trail) and descent was super fun but I decided any further rides would be with climbing only on forest roads (fairly normal for the area.)  Alas, that was my last off-road ride before I got COVID and was stuck suffering indoors for the next week.  (two less COVID virgins)

Edited by AntonioGG
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FWIW the Levo has a button that assists while walking the bike. Though it is placed in an unfortunate location so as to be of little practical use.

Best wishes on beating the COVID into submission! I think there is a higher instance for those on vacay, something about Murphy not playing fair...

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On 5/27/2022 at 5:38 PM, AustinBike said:

 I just believe the the solid use cases are not on the trails. Urban commuting, delivery, replacing gas scooters, and now military. These are all good uses.

What about ol George Dawkins? He rides a power-assisted Specialized several days a week, and he’ll tell you he probably wouldn’t be out there if it wasn’t for the pedal assist.

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22 hours ago, AntonioGG said:

In the Brevard, NC area, almost no trails allow e-bikes of any kind.  As I was climbing 2800ft on a forest road, I thought this would be a nice application for an e-bike so you could get more than a single run in a day.  But then the hike-a-bike climb on the singletrack had me reconsider completely that.  My 26lbs bike was enough of a chore to carry up the rooty and super steep (climbing straight up iso lines).  I couldn't have imagined doing that with a 50lbs bike.  I started to understand another reason why e-bikes may be banned in some areas.  That was a 5.5hr ride for me (ride to the trail) and descent was super fun but I decided any further rides would be with climbing only on forest roads (fairly normal for the area.)  Alas, that was my last off-road ride before I got COVID and was stuck suffering indoors for the next week.  (two less COVID virgins)

Sorry about the rona man. Sounds like you guys had it a little worse than us. Ugh.

The Levo weighed 37lbs which was actually 1lb lighter than his sentinel. Loading and unloading it felt no different than my commencal which also weighs around 38lbs. 

I would buy my wife an e-bike in a heartbeat if we did a lot of climbing. It sucks to see her struggle to keep up with us (guys) and the assist would even the field a bit. 

Edited by ATXZJ
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17 hours ago, TAF said:

What about ol George Dawkins? He rides a power-assisted Specialized several days a week, and he’ll tell you he probably wouldn’t be out there if it wasn’t for the pedal assist.

That is a solid use case. 

To date I have never seen anyone older than me on an eBike on the trails. Most could be my children.

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3 minutes ago, AustinBike said:

That is a solid use case. 

To date I have never seen anyone older than me on an eBike on the trails. Most could be my children.

So far, all of the people in quebec ive seen either riding or transporting e-mtb have been seniors.  

And smokers🤣

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Same for me. All I've seen are responsible adults old enough to have adequate disposable income riding trails on e-mtbs. The sort of people who enjoy the ride and to whom this offers a way back into their favored recreational pastime they wouldn't have otherwise. It seems like the last of the boomers and their kids are the target market for these bikes.

I'm only talking about pedal-assist trail bikes. As opposed to throttle e-bikes being ridden by out-of-shape gamers, wheeled pedestrians, former bus riders, etc. Those are more of an urban demographic, and it would be good to see more of those in use as commuters, just not on trails. I try to avoid confusing the two classes as they seem like apples and oranges to me.

Granted, riding parks in an urban environment is likely a much different ratio than the crowd that hits trails further afield. Such as comparing the cross section of users at urban parks like Walnut and those on improved bike paths to the riders at mtb-specific trails like RHR.

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On 8/9/2022 at 7:33 PM, AustinBike said:

Tom’s point was college students and commuting. I’m gonna guess there are a lot of cheap electric bikes there. And a lot of electric scooters. Go through the bike racks at UT and tell me how many cheap bikes you see vs. Santa Cruz or Pivots.

I bet you only 25% of the ebikers I saw were college students.  Maybe another 25% were commuting what I saw was people just using them for transportation.

I probably saw half a dozen of the Mom Wagons- Dutch style with a front wagon hauling kids around.

 

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8 hours ago, AntonioGG said:

“Could be” or could be?

You’ve seen me. The odds that I could be the kinda guy fathering children with random women are exceedingly low. When my wife sees me leave to ride she looks at the way I am dressed and says “well we know you aren’t going out to meet women.” She has a point.

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