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The first sign of the apocalypse


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13 minutes ago, notyal said:

 I don't ride with many people that currently ride regular bikes under 5-6K and some much more. 

The Austin mtb scene is not a great representative of "the masses" of mtbers across the country. Austin is an affluent area with a pretty hardcore mtb scene. Spend some time working in a bike shop in someplace that is not populated by young, educated, tech-employed DINKs and you'll see what I mean. "The masses" are people to whom spending $1k on a toy seems astronomical, and I doubt that a decent e-mtb is going to make that price point, even with the trickle-down effect of technology.

Edited by mack_turtle
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If we wait a few more years we should be able to get affordable Walmart e-bikes🤣 On a serious note just think of all the Walmart e-bikes finding their way into landfills in the not so far future. I say this because we all know that Walmart will eventually be selling e-bikes. 

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PSA from your local tree-hugger: electronics are recyclable and it is VERY much preferred that rechargable batteries get recycled and stay OUT of landfills.

I worry about the long-term affects of so many superfluous battery applications. If you're going to subject the planet to the rigors of mining battery materials and energy production to keep them charged, make them good quality so they are less likely to end up in a landfill.

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To add to this, bikeshops are dying on the vine yet the industry is going to somehow push 6-8k ebikes(?) Not sure how this is gonna play out.

"50% of SC's catalog being eBikes in 5 years -Rob Roskopp"

SC currently has 13 bike models listed on their site and Rob says half will be ebikes in 5 years. That's at a minimum of 1.3 bikes introduced per year moving forward. It took them how long to develop that outdated heckler? 2-3 years.....

 

 

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Then there's this:

Paul Bas: The eBike is My Tool of Freedom

Pay attention at 3:20. Imagine being "that guy" heckling the dude on an eBike only to get to the bottom of the trail and realizing you were dissing Bas. My heart goes out to, and I have the utmost respect for, those riders I see every year on some sort of adaptive MTB. That spirit to overcome adversity and go back to doing what you love is inspirational.

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7 minutes ago, ATXZJ said:

To add to this, bikeshops are dying on the vine yet the industry is going to somehow push 6-8k ebikes(?) Not sure how this is gonna play out.

"50% of SC's catalog being eBikes in 5 years -Rob Roskopp"

SC currently has 13 bike models listed on their site and Rob says half will be ebikes in 5 years. That's at a minimum of 1.3 bikes introduced per year moving forward. It took them how long to develop that outdated heckler? 2-3 years.....

 

 

Having done product development for many year, you have to assume that there are two business models today, and companies will need to do both (just look at 29ers and the "toe clip" problem for a modern day bike example):

First, you run fast to exploit a market opportunity. That means you take existing OEM models, slap your name on them and market them. This buys you market share, but more importantly, time, while you are working on the "real" designs.

Second, after you have established your position in the market, you bring the new, internally developed bike to the market.

Basically the OEM model enables time to market.

Where these guys are falling down is thinking that if you fill the market with ~4-6K eMTBs for the next 24 months while they get their designs ready, that they can flip the original buyers to the new designs. This fallacy has 2 huge holes: While this happens all the time on mountain bikes, there is an established resale market and top end bikes *generally* hold their value to some degree. You can buy a 2020 SC Tallboy today and sell it a year from now for ~70% of what you paid. Because there is a large resale market. Now take a look at the addressable eMTB market and you'll see that round 1 of OEM bikes saturated the market. So you really don't have a resale market to sell into. The other huge hole is the price. Today's $5K OEM eMTB is a stiff pill to swallow, but after you make that leap, how quickly do you ditch that for a more expensive bike? Odds are you ride it on fewer trails, so it takes a lot longer to mentally amortize that purchase.

I see doom.

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There's this, too:

This is who eBikes are for . . .

Honestly, I see a huge benefit for increased camaraderie and cross-pollination of skills. There are some riders I avoid riding with because they're hammers uphill and I am not. But I guarantee they'd have fun descending with me😀. I can totally sympathize with the situation of the guy who wants to do another lap but the other guy is like, "No way I'm going back up that hill!" 

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If that's "who e-bikes are for," why do companies like Santa Cruz expect to stick motors on half their bikes in the next few years? Do we expect half of all riders to have actual medical conditions that necessitate motorized assistance? Do half of all riders need to climb thousands of feet at a time to access trails?

If I was a bow hunter and learned that the market was heavily pushing laser-enhanced, atomic-powered rail guns instead of something that more closely resembles normal archery equipment, I'd feel the same way.

Likewise, if you walked into a running store and found that half of the shoes on the shelf were equipped with Acme rocket skates, something would seem off.

My take: the only thing that would warrant that kind of saturation of e-mtbs in the market is people becoming wussies.

Edited by mack_turtle
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5 minutes ago, El Gringo said:

Clearly, you didn't watch the video.

I thought I had seen that one, but I had it confused with another video about a guy with a unsurmountable medical lung issue. That made sense too.

E-mtbs for people who climb ACTUAL mountains to get to downhill runs make a lot of sense too. There are several reasons why e-mtbs make sense. The way they are trying to saturate the market with them, however, does not make sense.

Edited by mack_turtle
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18 minutes ago, mack_turtle said:

If the only thing stopping you from going up a hill is regular ol' fatigue, you don't need a motor. You need to HTFU. 

I would argue that not everyone has the same heart conditions so this could be a stretch. Most can but I don't think we can make a blanket assumption.

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15 minutes ago, mack_turtle said:

If that's "who e-bikes are for," why do companies like Santa Cruz expect to stick motors on half their bikes in the next few years? Do we expect half of all riders to have actual medical conditions that necessitate motorized assistance?

I think the whole medical condition/old person line that every bike company is using is just a talking point fed to them by the marketing department to ease the general public into the reality that ebikes are a major part of their future. Get acceptance from the general public that using pedal assist is admissible on some level, then slide perspective of where that line is drawn more and more towards the middle.

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47 minutes ago, mack_turtle said:

Likewise, if you walked into a running store and found that half of the shoes on the shelf were equipped with Acme rocket skates, something would seem off.

More like Acton R10 Rocket Skates.  So now we have powered paragliders and rocket skates.  Bugs Bunny is in trouble now!

 

 

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8 hours ago, AustinBike said:

Having done product development for many year, you have to assume that there are two business models today, and companies will need to do both (just look at 29ers and the "toe clip" problem for a modern day bike example):

First, you run fast to exploit a market opportunity. That means you take existing OEM models, slap your name on them and market them. This buys you market share, but more importantly, time, while you are working on the "real" designs.

Second, after you have established your position in the market, you bring the new, internally developed bike to the market.

Basically the OEM model enables time to market.

Where these guys are falling down is thinking that if you fill the market with ~4-6K eMTBs for the next 24 months while they get their designs ready, that they can flip the original buyers to the new designs. This fallacy has 2 huge holes: While this happens all the time on mountain bikes, there is an established resale market and top end bikes *generally* hold their value to some degree. You can buy a 2020 SC Tallboy today and sell it a year from now for ~70% of what you paid. Because there is a large resale market. Now take a look at the addressable eMTB market and you'll see that round 1 of OEM bikes saturated the market. So you really don't have a resale market to sell into. The other huge hole is the price. Today's $5K OEM eMTB is a stiff pill to swallow, but after you make that leap, how quickly do you ditch that for a more expensive bike? Odds are you ride it on fewer trails, so it takes a lot longer to mentally amortize that purchase.

I see doom.

No doubt you've got the first wave of get-them-out-ASAP e-mountain bikes that were produced, but this was a couple years ago, when the market was relatively small and in its infancy.

Here's a quote from market research...

"The fastest-growing bicycle type in the market right now is electric. E-bike sales totaled $77.1 million in 2017, up 91 percent over the previous year. Sales of electric bikes have grown more than eightfold since 2014."

And this happened with less media hype related to e-bikes than we now have.

Flipping owners of older bikes isn't the key... Growing the market is the key. And this includes not only newbies, but also flipping traditional pedal-only mtb owners to power- assisted mtb owners. You walk into a bike store and are now confronted with one more choice — regular mountain bike, or e-mountain bike. And the main hurdle is not in some mtb culture, it's in pricing... E-mountain bikes are expensive. But what will happen when the price falls (Felt has a well reviewed e-bike that's currently selling at $2,999).

New e-mtb development seems to be focused on high-end priced products... But this is possibly because profit margins are higher per product sold, and there is not yet mass market demand for e-mountain bikes, and manufacturers may not be in a hurry to cannibalize their traditional bike sales... Or, maybe the thinking is to simply keep e-mountain biking a luxury product/sport.

Whatever the case... I think calling "...doom..." at this time is a bit premature.
 

 

Edited by RidingAgain
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10 hours ago, Sluggo said:

Shuttles, lifts or pedaling? Ebikes  have their place and are here to stay. Remember the 1st gen 29rs? Cheater bikes. 

I'll take this bet. At $4500 for an entry level bike with low end components, it's gonna be a tough draw. 

I think you are 100% correct that e-bikes are here to stay. But not eMTBs, I think those are going to be a marketing failure, but I believe that electric urban bikes will have a big opportunity and could eat a third or more of the "upscale commuter" market. I can see a future where anything over $1,000 is electric with only a tiny sliver of expensive pedal-only commuters.

29ers went from niche to 80% of the market and would probably have been 100% <scooby doo criminal voice> if it wasn't for those meddling 27.5ers</scooby doo criminal voice>.

 

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Now the tech folks are weighing in: https://www.wired.com/review/specialized-mens-turbo-levo-comp

While I agree with 99% of what is in this article, the $10-12K price tag means that few, if any will buy this bike. While my wife did not have an issue with my last $4K bike purchase, I have to think a $10K+ purchase will not be as easy to justify, especially if the trail choices are limited.

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19 hours ago, notyal said:

I think the whole medical condition/old person line that every bike company is using is just a talking point fed to them by the marketing department to ease the general public into the reality that ebikes are a major part of their future. Get acceptance from the general public that using pedal assist is admissible on some level, then slide perspective of where that line is drawn more and more towards the middle.

This is what I was getting at. I simply don't buy the notion that the industry is pulling out all the stops to slap motors on recreational bicycles so that old folks can keep up with whipper-snappers. that's a great application for the technology and I have no problem with using these bikes in places where chair lifts and truck shuttles are not possible. but that's a very tiny niche market for the effort that is being poured into it. the truth is that brap bros (sorry, I don't know what else to call them) are going to buy things like this and use them inappropriately. I'd love to see people who have a legitimate "need" for them on local terrain, but I will be surprised if they not banned from public trails in the near future after a battery catches on fire and burns down half of WC or a few helicopter rescues are required for people fly off a cliff while smashing 45 pound bikes through BCGB for the first time.

1 hour ago, The Tip said:

This thread will be very interesting to read in five years.

yes! If you want a laugh, I have a stack of Dirt Rag magazines that go back to the '80s. the letter submissions are hilarious in retrospect.

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