AustinBike Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 16 minutes ago, ATXZJ said: Absolutely. All I can hope for is the opportunity to watch it all go away. And my question for our virtue signaling LT governor is : would you suck a dick for the economy Dan? How much do you love the free market? It's just one dick Dan. You know he can't stop at one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 5 hours ago, ATXZJ said: Absolutely. All I can hope for is the opportunity to watch it all go away. And my question for our virtue signaling LT governor is : would you suck a dick for the economy Dan? How much do you love the free market? It's just one dick Dan. Not a problem for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 5 hours ago, ATXZJ said: Absolutely. All I can hope for is the opportunity to watch it all go away. And my question for our virtue signaling LT governor is : would you suck a dick for the economy Dan? How much do you love the free market? It's just one dick Dan. Not a problem for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 5 hours ago, ATXZJ said: Absolutely. All I can hope for is the opportunity to watch it all go away. And my question for our virtue signaling LT governor is : would you suck a dick for the economy Dan? How much do you love the free market? It's just one dick Dan. Not a problem for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 Sorry about triple post. Submit button did nothing three times and it appears we can't delete a post. Also asked for password help but no response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Posted March 26, 2020 Share Posted March 26, 2020 5 hours ago, AustinBike said: You know he can't stop at one. Dicks are his lays potato chips. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATXZJ Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 we shall see. fingers crossed we get a little good luck here in CTX https://www.kxan.com/weather/weather-blog/why-friday-could-be-coronavirus-spread-turning-point-in-austin/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AustinBike Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 I think we are starting to flatten out. My fear is that we make the "all clear" call too early and just jump back to climbing again. Looking at Travis county numbers, more than half are in the 20-39 age group: https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984 Not sure is this is because we skew younger than the rest of TX or because younger people are more likely to be outside and interacting instead of staying home. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AntonioGG Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 5 hours ago, AustinBike said: I think we are starting to flatten out. My fear is that we make the "all clear" call too early and just jump back to climbing again. Looking at Travis county numbers, more than half are in the 20-39 age group: https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984 Not sure is this is because we skew younger than the rest of TX or because younger people are more likely to be outside and interacting instead of staying home. I was just about to post that same link. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBaron Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 On 3/27/2020 at 6:02 AM, AustinBike said: I think we are starting to flatten out. My fear is that we make the "all clear" call too early and just jump back to climbing again. What makes you say this? I've been following the info in that link for a while now and if anything, I think it shows a steady trajectory of about 20 new cases per day (up from early rates of 15-10 per day). IMHO, I think we are still on the front end of this with a (fairly) steep trajectory ahead of us. Here are some model projections (just another data point, not necessarily my exact belief). https://www.kxan.com/coronavirus-2/texas-almost-three-weeks-away-from-coronavirus-pandemic-peak-new-projections-claim/ Thanks CJB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AustinBike Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 This morning's numbers were flatter. When I say flatten out I mean starting the process. But it will be like turning an oil tanker. The "flattening" may take a month, so we will be into May before we really know what is going on. My fear is not an all clear now (or Easter as trump had originally suggested) but my fear is an all clear in May where people who have been cooped up for 6 weeks suddenly believe that it is literally back to life as normal and that we don't need to take precautions. Honestly speaking, until we have a vaccine (12-18 months) there will be some degree of managing unnecessary trips. Yes, you'll be able to go out, but any time you need a widget you'll be weighing running down to Home Depot vs. waiting. Restaurants will be open, but probably way more space (i.e. fewer tables) and more carry out than eat in. I'm no expert but I see this in phases: 1. Lockdown (today) 2. Easing lockdown - new rules, not back to normal (for 12-18 months) 3. Back to normal because we have a vaccine (probably 2 years from now) During phase 2 you'll see outbreaks and mini lockdowns. Someone in the neighborhood or at work gets sick and this whole thing starts all over again. If you have someone sick at work there will be a 1-week lockdown at the office while they send in a disinfecting team. Church services still banned, no concerts, lots of restrictions on bars and other gathering places. Still tons of disruption. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Tip Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 2 hours ago, AustinBike said: until we have a vaccine (12-18 months) I hope they can then manufacture that vaccine faster than they can manufacture masks or toilet paper! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AustinBike Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 3 hours ago, The Tip said: I hope they can then manufacture that vaccine faster than they can manufacture masks or toilet paper! J&J announced today that they were building a factory to potentially manufacture a vaccine, if that tells you how far off a solution probably is. Don't fixate on a vaccine (which will take a long time), look for a treatment. Once people know they can get this and won't die, life gets back to normal. But I don't get on an international flight without a vaccine, so travel is limited to the US once we have a treatment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RidingAgain Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Flatten out is hopeful thinking at this time... Until the percentage of testing comes up no one really knows what's going on. I was browsing some related articles this morning and came across this Youtube video. WARNING... Not for the faint hearted... And the presenter is kind of offbeat... But he makes what happens to a person who has contracted the virus very clear... And ends with the connection to the overall situation. As usual... Eat the hay and leave the sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cafeend Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 From WilCo , https://wcchd.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/9ebebb5225a5458fa4a35fb39a3db7fd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RidingAgain Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Just read a report that it's thought that 25% of infected folk are asymptomatic. This is another reason why any real understanding of the flattening won't be know until the test percentage goes way up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notyal Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 24 minutes ago, RidingAgain said: Just read a report that it's thought that 25% of infected folk are asymptomatic. This is another reason why any real understanding of the flattening won't be know until the test percentage goes way up. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/03/26/coronavirus-fact-check-could-your-december-cough-have-been-covid-19/2899027001/ This is from a few days ago, but I found it pretty interesting. I am not a conspiracy theorist (and this isn't exactly a conspiracy theory), but it makes sense to me. In a nutshell, covid has been spreading in the U.S. since December or even late November. We just weren't testing for it. Think about it. In the global community that we live in, with millions of people in airports traveling everyday, to think a highly contagious virus like this one is confined to a certain region for any amount of time is just blindly hopeful. The first positive test in the U.S. was January 21. What are the odds that the first person to have the disease in the U.S. was the first positive test result? So, they actually found and tested patient zero, and this happened months after an explosion of cases in China and Italy. I'd say the chances are slim. In January, a co-worker of mine went to Disney World (aka the World's Petri Dish). She came back with a nasty illness and passed it to 2 others in the office, and in turn, all of their families. (We have a very small office, so that's a high rate.) Fever for almost 2 weeks, cough, and looked like death. All tested negative for flu. I'm not saying that it was covid, but would it be shocking if it was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mack_turtle Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 I don't understand the logic of shutting down a workplace until after there has been a confirmed case in that office. Exposure is happening everywhere, for the past two months. if you have a confirmed case in your office, you're already two weeks too late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AntonioGG Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 27 minutes ago, notyal said: In January, a co-worker of mine went to Disney World (aka the World's Petri Dish). She came back with a nasty illness and passed it to 2 others in the office, and in turn, all of their families. (We have a very small office, so that's a high rate.) Fever for almost 2 weeks, cough, and looked like death. All tested negative for flu. I'm not saying that it was covid, but would it be shocking if it was? She was symptomatic and went to the office?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notyal Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 19 minutes ago, mack_turtle said: I don't understand the logic of shutting down a workplace until after there has been a confirmed case in that office. Exposure is happening everywhere, for the past two months. if you have a confirmed case in your office, you're already two weeks too late. If this is in response to my story, there wasn't a confirmed case. That happened before general knowledge had it in the U.S. If it's just a general statement, the answer is simply money. Call it greed of giants like Amazon keeping facilities open down to small business just trying to stay afloat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notyal Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 minute ago, AntonioGG said: She was symptomatic and went to the office?! She didn't show symptoms until a few days after she got back. Although her kids started running the fever on the way home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AntonioGG Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 (edited) Check this out. RRISD had a deal where they recommended parents get this Kinsa connected thermometer and had rules about when kids should stay home and when they can return. This company aggregates the data from >1M users and they can see trends 2-3 days before the CDC. They can’t know whether someone has flu, covid19, strep or something else, but they can compare against the expected flu trend and see the difference. In the link below you can see recent trends per county showing how the spread is slowing thanks to the distancing. They also have data that shows early measures (limiting group size) did nothing, and that the trend changed when they closed bars and restaurants. This is not in the link but in the NYT article which is linked below. https://healthweather.us Edited March 31, 2020 by AntonioGG Stupid autocorrect 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 hour ago, AntonioGG said: https://healthweather.us That's a great link, thanks. I was just wondering over the weekend how much distancing is also knocking out flu this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AntonioGG Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 57 minutes ago, Barry said: That's a great link, thanks. I was just wondering over the weekend how much distancing is also knocking out flu this season. It's definitely doing it, which is why I suggested to my employer to implement sick days and not just generic PTO, and encourage people to stay home. Too many times a bunch of people get sick at work b/c we're all workaholics/driven and we're trying to save precious PTO for vacations. I bet there are studies that show a positive $ impact to sick days due to less loss of productivity. I was also wondering about food poisoning and other such communal (venereal too) diseases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cafeend Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 25 minutes ago, AntonioGG said: It's definitely doing it, which is why I suggested to my employer to implement sick days and not just generic PTO, and encourage people to stay home. Too many times a bunch of people get sick at work b/c we're all workaholics/driven and we're trying to save precious PTO for vacations. I bet there are studies that show a positive $ impact to sick days due to less loss of productivity. I was also wondering about food poisoning and other such communal (venereal too) diseases. My wife in her role at UT manages a bunch of people and one of her biggest struggles\complaints is trying to get sick people to not come in. But-- they dont want to burn PTO or they are not paid very well and need every cent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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