AntonioGG Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 Just now, AustinBike said: Also, Facebook is a terrible disseminator of information. My kids quote, "Facebook is for old people" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AustinBike Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 Hey, I'm old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mack_turtle Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 (edited) Austin and Travis County are "shutting down" parks this weekend. I understand what they are trying to do, but, a) are they actually going to enforce that? how can they? b) is that just going to funnel people into alternative spaces that are more restrictive? I guess the main thing they can do is block parking lots at trail heads and hope people stay away. the covidiots who would normally gather at Bull Creek and HOL are going to have to have their orgies of stupidity elsewhere, or face the horror of riding a bicycle to those places. fortunately, it looks like it's going to be hot AF, so most people will stay home and watch Hamilton on Disney+. Edited July 2, 2020 by mack_turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATXZJ Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 New episode is out and delves into masks a bit. Biggest thing to me are his thoughts on the misinformation out there from medical professionals, and reduced risk when distancing outdoors. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars/episode-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATXZJ Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 Campbell is getting into the details on this new one. Very informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mack_turtle Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 (edited) "I don't need to wear a mask" — "I have chosen willful ignorance about the physical reality of how stuff moves in the air and I don't give a shit about anyone but myself." this "meme" has many variations based on the classic "trolley problem" Strangest thing I have seen: we are now in full Red Alert across Texas, including Austin, and people still have their heads up their butts. Edited July 8, 2020 by mack_turtle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taco_junkie Posted July 8, 2020 Share Posted July 8, 2020 COVID-19 is just VFX confirmed. Everyone get in the airlock. I'll stay behind and press the button to eject you into space the green room. That show was great. I hope we get another season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheX Posted July 9, 2020 Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/2020/6/28/secondwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBaron Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, TheX said: https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/2020/6/28/secondwave Dang, I read the entire thing. I sure hope he's right. Ever since the decision to re-open came about, I feel like its been very difficult to get a fair-read for what's really going on. I'm gently in the middle position-wise with all of this. I've been trying to galvanize my thinking and most of it all just seems like noise. That why I'm pleased to see this thread pop back up with less vitriol and name-calling. Cheers, CJB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AustinBike Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 (edited) 8 hours ago, CBaron said: Dang, I read the entire thing. I sure hope he's right. Ever since the decision to re-open came about, I feel like its been very difficult to get a fair-read for what's really going on. I'm gently in the middle position-wise with all of this. I've been trying to galvanize my thinking and most of it all just seems like noise. That why I'm pleased to see this thread pop back up with less vitriol and name-calling. Cheers, CJB Spoiler alert: he's probably not right. I got about halfway through the article but had two very large issues with his assessment. First, he is looking at deaths and not infections. The death rate is coming down because of two factors. First, more younger people are getting infected and they are less likely to die. You want to really drive down the death rate? Open the schools. You'll flood the system with millions of children and almost zero deaths. Death rate is a function of the numerator and the denominator, if you want to change the number significantly you just need to add way more infections and that death rate, as a percentage, keeps creeping down. The other driver on deaths is that we did not know that much early on. We were putting everyone on ventilators. Then we learned that this is an 80% death sentence. Fewer ventilators actually = fewer deaths. We're getting better at treating this and outcomes are increasing. Second, he talks about herd immunity being 17-20%. I've never seen any other expert that low. Most are in the 40-60% range (typical herd immunity is 80-95%). Now, even if you believe that we can get there at 20%, where does that leave us? We just crossed 3,000,000 infections in the US. With a population of ~370M, this means we are not even 1% infected. So all we need to get to herd immunity is just take today's situation and make it TWENTY TIMES WORSE. The semantics of "first wave" and "second wave" are a bit blurry because we never took care of the first wave: If I had to venture what is *actually* going on here is not that there is a uniform wave, but that there is a time-based infection wave. This is New York This is Texas: The biggest problem that we face is that we reopened too fast. And we are about to go all in and do the exact same thing with schools. The health experts will tell you that opening schools is a real danger. The politicians will tell you we have to get there and will force the issue. And then 2 months from now we'll be looking at infections everywhere that look like the Texas chart above. The lesson that we have not learned apparently, is that the virus doesn't care about the economy and the virus cannot be bullied. The fact that the CDC came out with school guidelines, the White House then came out with their guidelines, and then forced the CDC to restate to more relaxed guidelines just tells me that we are amping up for another fiasco. Thank god I don't have kids. All I have to do is pay for this. Edited July 9, 2020 by AustinBike 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cody Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 15 hours ago, TheX said: https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/2020/6/28/secondwave The title alone raised my eyebrows, and skimming through the "facts" reinforced my intuition, so I had to Google the author. Turns out he is a major antivaxxer grifter. Please don't amplify him. https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/j-b-handleys-unthinking-persons-guide-to-the-covid-19-pandemic/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mack_turtle Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 (edited) 15 hours ago, TheX said: https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/2020/6/28/secondwave I had to look that up too. find a source who's not an anti-vaxxer quack, please. Edited July 9, 2020 by mack_turtle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBaron Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 5 hours ago, AustinBike said: Second, he talks about herd immunity being 17-20%. I've never seen any other expert that low. Most are in the 40-60% range (typical herd immunity is 80-95%). Now, even if you believe that we can get there at 20%, where does that leave us? We just crossed 3,000,000 infections in the US. With a population of ~370M, this means we are not even 1% infected. So all we need to get to herd immunity is just take today's situation and make it TWENTY TIMES WORSE. I'm not going to dive into big debates with people because I'm still trying to figure out exactly where I stand. I consider myself still more in 'observer' mode in the broad sense. But the author was getting to the herd immunity numbers by dividing the death numbers by the IFR which seems like a form of reasonable math to me? Additionally, you state that we just crossed 3 million infections but I think that's just 'defined' infections. The actual infected rate is widely believed to be MUCH higher. How high? I have no idea...I can't seem to get a great read on that stat either. But I've seen numbers that state as much as 10x the defined infected rate. And I really don't care if he's an anti-vaxxer or not. I'm trying to look at math and science to the best of my (own) ability. Later, CJB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mack_turtle Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 talk about hysteria, have you folks read about Kanye West's political platform? I cannot tell if he's serious or trolling the whole world. probably the latter so he can sell sneakers or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheX Posted July 9, 2020 Author Share Posted July 9, 2020 Average wait times for St. David's as of right now. Hardly being over run. In fact, they are basically sitting idle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mack_turtle Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 (edited) ^non-sequitur of the week. what does that have to do with capacity for COVID-19 treatment? Do you think they are lying, and why would hospitals lie about running out of resources to tread COVID-19 patients? that doesn't even make sense. I don't understand what kind of point you're making. just because someone will see you in the ER within a few minutes does not mean that the virus is not spreading like crazy and making people very sick. Edited July 9, 2020 by mack_turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AustinBike Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 (edited) Emergency room =/= ICU capacity That is like saying that there is no wait to place your order at Starbucks. Anyone can take an order and take your money quickly but what if they don't hand you your half car skinny venti mocha frappachino an hour later. Are you still excited about the fact that there was nobody in front of you to order at that point? Those that can't understand the difference between emergency room and ICU need to do a little more reading. Nobody has ever said that there was an emergency room shortage, it is an ICU shortage. Edited July 9, 2020 by AustinBike 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AustinBike Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, CBaron said: I'm not going to dive into big debates with people because I'm still trying to figure out exactly where I stand. I consider myself still more in 'observer' mode in the broad sense. But the author was getting to the herd immunity numbers by dividing the death numbers by the IFR which seems like a form of reasonable math to me? Additionally, you state that we just crossed 3 million infections but I think that's just 'defined' infections. The actual infected rate is widely believed to be MUCH higher. How high? I have no idea...I can't seem to get a great read on that stat either. But I've seen numbers that state as much as 10x the defined infected rate. And I really don't care if he's an anti-vaxxer or not. I'm trying to look at math and science to the best of my (own) ability. Later, CJB Yes, the actual infection rates could be a lot higher. But, sadly, there are people simultaneously saying that we don't need all of these lockdowns, we just need to get to herd immunity. At the same time they are telling you that there really isn't a problem. They need to pick a lane. And if the actual infection rate is 10X higher (which I would believe because of all of the asymptomatic people) then I would posit: 1. We are probably only ~20% of the way to herd immunity, not halfway there, so that implies we need to order a lot more body bags. 2. We have not comprehended all of the downstream pulmonary and heart issues that seem to be coming out of these patients. We're seeing a lot of people with lingering effects that could last for the rest of their lives. Nobody is capturing this data and it could be a real drag on GDP for decades to come. Which is why keeping people healthy and safe is so important. Data out of South Korea from KCDC shows just one person out of ~3,000 that actually had immunity and antibodies: http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200709000787. Chalk up one more for "don't count on herd immunity to get us out of this one. {We're staring down some pretty serious complicating factors in my family right now so I am all over this thing, way more than I ever wanted to be.} Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taco_junkie Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 LMFTFY: "Have you folks read about Kanye West's political platform? I cannot tell if he's serious or trolling the whole world. probably the latter so he can sell sneakers or something." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATXZJ Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 every dude in that household goes crazy. one of them hit someone with their car then cut their dick off 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GFisher Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 Funny, I was walking around the neighborhood by the school and overheard 2 boys probably around 8-10 years old. One was saying someone was trying to take votes away from Biden because they don't like him. The other asked how he was going to do that, The other said he did not know... By then I was out of earshot. I am assuming they were talking about Kanye but it was really strange hearing 2 little kids talk about politics. They were wearing their helmets about to hop back on their Walmart mtbs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taco_junkie Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 That's gotta be a rough day. You get run over by Kanye then he gets out and cuts your dick off. Damn. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATXZJ Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, GFisher said: Funny, I was walking around the neighborhood by the school and overheard 2 boys probably around 8-10 years old. One was saying someone was trying to take votes away from Biden because they don't like him. The other asked how he was going to do that, The other said he did not know... By then I was out of earshot. I am assuming they were talking about Kanye but it was really strange hearing 2 little kids talk about politics. They were wearing their helmets about to hop back on their Walmart mtbs. unfortunately, politics is the new religion in america 2 minutes ago, taco_junkie said: That's gotta be a rough day. You get run over by Kanye then he gets out and cuts your dick off. Damn. 🤣 It's 2020 so all bets are off...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mack_turtle Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, AustinBike said: Emergency room =/= ICU capacity That is like saying that there is no wait to place your order at Starbucks. Anyone can take an order and take your money quickly but what if they don't hand you your half car skinny venti mocha frappachino an hour later. Are you still excited about the fact that there was nobody in front of you to order at that point? Those that can't understand the difference between emergency room and ICU need to do a little more reading. Nobody has ever said that there was an emergency room shortage, it is an ICU shortage. First, as someone who has worked at Startbucks, yes. the cashiers can take your order MUCH faster than the baristas can make them. in the age of online ordering where there's one person in line but someone just ordered 20 individual drinks for her entire office, appearances can be deceiving. people stand around for 20 minutes and get mad after you've called their name and drink order out seven times and someone else swoops in a takes it, too. I had nightmares about never-ending drink orders after a long shift in December when dozens of Christmas shoppers formed a line out the door and the pile of cups destined to receive peppermint mochas kept piling higher and higher and I had to keep making whipped cream... OH NO THE DREAMS ARE BACK! but I digress. Likewise, if you walk into your LBS in June during a pandemic and no one else is around, that flat tire fix might take four weeks because all the bicycle nurses and sick bays are full. more importantly, where did you find that data for ICUs in Travis County? (edit: I think this is it.) Edited July 9, 2020 by mack_turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBaron Posted July 9, 2020 Share Posted July 9, 2020 1 hour ago, GFisher said: Funny, I was walking around the neighborhood by the school and overheard 2 boys probably around 8-10 years old. One was saying someone was trying to take votes away from Biden because they don't like him. The other asked how he was going to do that, The other said he did not know... By then I was out of earshot. I am assuming they were talking about Kanye but it was really strange hearing 2 little kids talk about politics. They were wearing their helmets about to hop back on their Walmart mtbs. Ugh, I find that terribly sad. 8-10 yr old boys should be talking about other things....NOT F'n politics! -CJB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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