No coronavirus outside

[throet]

22 minutes ago, Chief said:

You come from a life working in the medical arena you know what the answer to your question is. This virus is only three months old, it is very new as a strain that infects people and because of that we have no immunity whatsoever to it. A virus that has never infected a human before is extremely dangerous not only due to the actual symptoms it creates but also the potential for the bodies immune system to over produce anti bodies or Cytokines creating what doctors refer to as Cytokine storm. The largest demographic of fatalities in the 1918 Spanish flu was healthy 19-25 year olds. They had healthy immune systems that went into overdrive when they contracted the virus causing them to die from their bodies response rather than from the flu itself. All because their bodies had never encountered a disease like it before. Be smart limit social contact as much as possible. The wife and I went out to dinner last night to a popular Austin restaurant that is usually very busy on a Saturday night, last night not so much. I discussed with the wife that this would be our last outing like that for a little while and that we should be smart and try to help slowing this thing down by "social distancing". My wife is also a hot yoga junkie and I explained to her that she's going to need to put that on pause for a little while. She was not happy about that. There is more to this than just the physical aspect, of course no one wants to die or see a family member or friend die but there is also the financial burden that something like this can create. Even with health insurance which I have none thanks to Obamacare it can create unsurmountable bills. Oh wait I forgot "everyone likes their health care and wants to keep it". This is just an example of why we need single payer healthcare. I know that's socialist talk, but the politicians have single payer healthcare provided by us through our tax dollars. The ultra wealthy don't give a f@ck about us. Bloomberg spent $500 million on a campaign that went nowhere, that's enough money to give each American 1.6 million dollars each. My hope for a good outcome from this virus is that it might help level the playing field a little bit. Viruses don't negotiate or care about money or for that matter toilet paper. 

I get that everybody is susceptible and I absolutely get the importance of taking society-wide measures to flatten the curve. My question was more specifically around what puts an individual most at risk of mortality. For this particular virus, it seems frailty more than age alone makes the difference. Like you said though, there is way more still that we don't yet even know about COVID-19.

The US is nearly alone in terms of developed nations that don't have universal healthcare, and I don't expect to see that change anytime soon because those who are profiting from our broken healthcare system own the most powerful lobbyists in our broken political system. In defense of Obamacare, it was at least an attempt to change the status quo. Had the "public option" that was written into the original bill been left in place, I believe things would be very different for you and me today. Even without the public option, Medicaid expansion combined with Marketplace subsidies have left many more Americans with healthcare coverage than had been previously covered. The problem is that the system is still one of cost shifting, meaning somebody has to pay in order for profits to remain, and the lion's share of that burden generally falls on the upper middle-class. I suspect greater change will ultimately come from some form of disruption to the business model, but it will be slow as evidenced by the limited traction we're seeing from purported disrupters like Oscar and Haven.                    

[RidingAgain]

For profit... Capitalism... Is not a bad thing.

The problem is greed.

[cxagent]

I have been avoiding saying much for a while now but this getting to be too much for me to take. This rant is based on very little education, research, training or knowledge. This is what I think is common sense.

The current virus is new. The best I can find is that the first known patient was in China in November 2019. That is a matter of months ago. It spread like crazy because it is a "new" virus. People don't have an immunity to it - yet. There is no vaccine - yet. Even the test had to be developed in the months since it was "discovered". I don't have a feel for if it spread faster or slower than other "new" viruses but I don't think it matters. The way people move around the globe these days means it spread easily and quickly.

People are dying from it. From what I can tell, the fatality rate is not far off the fatality rate of many common viruses. News stories make it sound like if you test positive you might as well attempt suicide because you have a better chance of surviving. The same news stories say that, so far, the fatalities have all be elderly or people with compromised health. Young and / or healthy people are recovering just like they recover from the flu or colds. Wait didn't the early news reports that this virus WAS in the same family at the cold / flu????

What should we do???? You should do what you want. I intend to live as I always have. Be healthy. That includes riding and exercising. Washing my hands. Keeping my body and my environment clean and healthy as I can within reason. (I will not do a daily Lysol scrub of my house / car / bike / etc.) I will avoid people who appear to be sick. I will try to stay away from other when I feel sick. All of these are things I normally do.

What do I change? My 401K is getting "rebalanced". (stock broker way of saying I am taking advantage of panic selling.) I am looking at things with a longer term view than most people appear to be. I think this will pass in a matter of months. After all - China is reported to have closed the last temporary hospital because the patients have recovered. Maybe people will learn from it. IMHO, they will not. And there will be similar opportunities again soon.

But the biggest thing I change is to quarantine. I will quarantine myself from the hysteria that plays on the news in the current 24 hour news media. My wife keeps pointing out that with 24 hour news on many different channels, they all have to out "hysteria" each other to attract audience. And that is where I think the problem is originating. That is the true "patient zero".

Anyway - this post is just my opinion and it is worth what you paid for it.

Edited March 15, 2020 by cxagent

[Chief]

2 minutes ago, 4fun said:

I’m going to politely disagree with you. The rising entitlement of the healthcare consumer over the last 10 years is already making being a health care worker very challenging. Can you Imagine with a single payer, this is my right for you to serve me attitude and by the way I’m going to cut your salary in half. We would lose a ton of good nurses and doctors that have brilliant minds and would succeed in other sectors.

I don't disagree with you. Those are absolutely valid points, but when just your insurance premiums are $20k a year before copays, prescriptions and deductibles it becomes increasingly harder to keep up with it. The current system is very broken because  it's a business and many insurance companies are publicly traded only compounding the situation. Our healthcare system is more beholding to the shareholders than it is to the insured. I speak from experience on this. Once my premiums became higher than my mortgage payment I had to give it up thus leaving me uninsured. The so called "affordable healthcare act" is not so affordable. What the affordable healthcare act did was give the insurance companies a blank checkbook. I paid 100% out of pocket for health care and had a plan long before Obamacare. What Obamacare did to me is placed me in a so called "group" making it sound like I was being subsidized and telling me I could only make changes to my policy during a set period of time every year. I would be fine with those terms if I was being subsidized by the government or an employer. What my insurance provider did was to increase my premium in December for the coming year which was $119 additional per month on my premium. Ok, that's a yearly increase and that's understandable, but once open enrollment closed I would get another increase of approximately the same amount. I call that extortion. Because the insurance company knew that once open enrollment closed I was pretty much stuck with what I had with no other option. Insurance is a commodity that we purchase much like a car or house or anything else, so for example let's say that you can only buy a car from March through May or only buy a house from June through August how would that work out? I don't know your situation as to whether your employer provides healthcare for you, I'm self employed and paid my insurance 100% out of pocket. Granted I get the full deduction on that but the monthly and yearly cost became a burden. My expense for insurance when all factors were including was approximately $30k a year that's a number that is greater than many peoples yearly income. Insurance companies or anything else associated with health care should not be publicly traded that is one way to start fixing the problem we have in this country.  

[throet]

23 minutes ago, 4fun said:

I’m going to politely disagree with you. The rising entitlement of the healthcare consumer over the last 10 years is already making being a health care worker very challenging. Can you Imagine with a single payer, this is my right for you to serve me attitude and by the way I’m going to cut your salary in half. We would lose a ton of good nurses and doctors that have brilliant minds and would succeed in other sectors.

There's a saying "if you oppose you must propose". So are you proposing that we just keep a system that leaves tens of millions of Americans without any health coverage, or are you saying that there is a better fix than single payer? I'm neutral on which direction change needs to come from, but all you have to do is look at a graph that shows the steady climb of healthcare costs as a percentage of GDP to know our current system is not sustainable. As for healthcare workers, you could also argue that $26M per year salaries of insurance company CEOs is keeping money out of the pockets of those providing direct care.   

[Chief]

18 minutes ago, cxagent said:

I have been avoiding saying much for a while now but this getting to be too much for me to take. This rant is based on very little education, research, training or knowledge. This is what I think is common sense.

The current virus is new. The best I can find is that the first known patient was in China in November 2019. That is a matter of months ago. It spread like crazy because it is a "new" virus. People don't have an immunity to it - yet. There is no vaccine - yet. Even the test had to be developed in the months since it was "discovered". I don't have a feel for if it spread faster or slower than other "new" viruses but I don't think it matters. The way people move around the globe these days means it spread easily and quickly.

People are dying from it. From what I can tell, the fatality rate is not far off the fatality rate of many common viruses. News stories make it sound like if you test positive you might as well attempt suicide because you have a better chance of surviving. The same news stories say that, so far, the fatalities have all be elderly or people with compromised health. Young and / or healthy people are recovering just like they recover from the flu or colds. Wait didn't the early news reports that this virus WAS in the same family at the cold / flu????

What should we do???? You should do what you want. I intend to live as I always have. Be healthy. That includes riding and exercising. Washing my hands. Keeping my body and my environment clean and healthy as I can within reason. (I will not do a daily Lysol scrub of my house / car / bike / etc.) I will avoid people who appear to be sick. I will try to stay away from other when I feel sick. All of these are things I normally do.

What do I change? My 401K is getting "rebalanced". (stock broker way of saying I am taking advantage of panic selling.) I am looking at things with a longer term view than most people appear to be. I think this will pass in a matter of months. After all - China is reported to have closed the last temporary hospital because the patients have recovered. Maybe people will learn from it. IMHO, they will not. And there will be similar opportunities again soon.

But the biggest thing I change is to quarantine. I will quarantine myself from the hysteria that plays on the news in the current 24 hour news media. My wife keeps pointing out that with 24 hour news on many different channels, they all have to out "hysteria" each other to attract audience. And that is where I think the problem is originating. That is the true "patient zero".

Anyway - this post is just my opinion and it is worth what you paid for it.

I'm not getting my info from the news. I'm listening to people with more experience in these things than a news reporter from a one sided news network. Now as far as going about my life as normal I will, but I'll also limit my contact with others and that's not because I'm afraid of getting the virus it's because I'd like to not be responsible for someone else's death due to my attitude about this being just another flu, that's just being selfish. If we don't think this is any worse than the common yearly flu, why have they stopped all sporting events, concerts and most importantly fundraising campaigns and debates for the upcoming election? We are not even close to being in the middle of this thing yet. There are a couple doctors and epidemiologists giving sound information on this. 

Edited March 15, 2020 by Chief

[Chief]

54 minutes ago, cxagent said:

I know things like that were shown in the news and on the internet. But please check my math - 

$500 million divided by 330 million people in the USA (google reported) gives each of us in the USA about $1.60 each. That is ONE dollar and sixty cents.

You know what they say - "they can't put in the internet if it *IS* true..." or something like that. 

 

You are correct I do apologize for the misinformation. But hey a $1.60 is better than nothing😂

Edited March 15, 2020 by Chief

[throet]

5 minutes ago, Chief said:

You are correct I do apologize for the misinformation. But hey a $1.60 is better than nothing😂

Haha I wondered about your math too but your point was very well taken. This graph tells it all, and if both lines keep moving in the same direction, we will have much more than viruses to worry about! 

[cxagent]

 

32 minutes ago, Chief said:

I'm not getting my info from the news. I'm listening to people with more experience in these things than a news reporter from a one sided news network. Now as far as going about my life as normal I will, but I'll also limit my contact with others and that's not because I'm afraid of getting the virus it's because I'd like to not be responsible for someone else's death due to my attitude about this being just another flu, that's just being selfish. If we don't think this is any worse than the common yearly flu, why have they stopped all sporting events, concerts and most importantly fundraising campaigns and debates for the upcoming election? We are not even close to being in the middle of this thing yet. There are a couple doctors and epidemiologists giving sound information on this. 

I am not arguing with you Chief - I think we are actually in agreement.  I don't think you are over reacting - I think the public in general is over reacting. And I think they are reacting to what they are being fed by the news media.

I addressed staying away from others in my post above.

We can argue forever about if this is worse than common cold/flu. My point is that it does not matter. If people have no immunity to it - the virus will spread like crazy. Well over 90% of people (according to most data) people will get it and recover. But some people will get it and not recover. I think it is the responsibility of everyone to do what we can - within reason - to limit the spread especially to those people who may not recover.

With this I am signing off. I have said my piece. Everyone can do what they want. I cannot control what others do. I can only control how I react to what others do.

[June Bug]

16 hours ago, throet said:

Do you think age alone puts you at risk? I'm hoping that staying active might help resistance.

Well, yes and no.  Immunity drops to a certain degree with every decade starting at 60.  Being active and in good shape helps in all ways, but I do know my immunity isn't what it used to be and it takes a bit longer to bounce back from illness.  I do NOT want to get this shit. 

Interesting article from VOX that discusses the issue of age and vulnerability.  Why Covid-19 is so dangerous for older adults.  

I'm also deeply concerned for us collectively.  Were I to be careless and become ill, I'd likely infect a number of other people, including my husband.  Were we to require hospitalization or other health care, we'd then endanger health workers and possible care givers and anyone who came into contact with us. 

My sense is that we are in the calm before the storm at this point.  Community acquired infections are popping up in unlikely places.  Matagorda County on the coast had it's first case.  Someone was diagnosed in Yoakum, Texas (between Cuero and Halletsville). 

If any of you have seen pictures of (I think) O'Hare, hordes of people returning to the US were packed shoulder to shoulder (think Japanese subway scene during rush hour) with some waiting 4 - 6 hours to get to the baggage carousel, and then another 2 - 4 hours to clear customs.  Insane.  No fever screening, no screening for those returning from heavily infected areas, no masks provided.   Zero.  Perfect conditions for the transmission of disease.  

Testing is either unavailable or a total cluster ****.   Honestly,  I'd face palm over this BUT I'M NOT SUPPOSED TO TOUCH MY FACE WITH MY HANDS! 

Baylor Scott and White is providing drive-up testing at a site near the Domain.  You sign up through their patient portal (requiring confirmation by text and email), then fill out their online patient screening questionnaire, and THEN they (human, algorithm?) decide if you get tested.  If you pass the threshold, you drive over to the location and get the test.  Your sample  is then sent to the state for testing and at some unspecified point in the future, the results are provided. 

Gah.  Anyway, link to the KXAN article: Drive-up Corona Virus Clinic Opens in North Austin

Chief, earlier this morning I read about cytokine storms.  Not a good way to go.  If you survive, a possibility of permanent lung damage. 

I'll raise my elbow for a distant elbow bump if I see y'all on the trails. 

 

 

 

Edited March 15, 2020 by June Bug

[Chief]

12 minutes ago, cxagent said:

 

I am not arguing with you Chief - I think we are actually in agreement.  I don't think you are over reacting - I think the public in general is over reacting. And I think they are reacting to what they are being fed by the news media.

I addressed staying away from others in my post above.

We can argue forever about if this is worse than common cold/flu. My point is that it does not matter. If people have no immunity to it - the virus will spread like crazy. Well over 90% of people (according to most data) people will get it and recover. But some people will get it and not recover. I think it is the responsibility of everyone to do what we can - within reason - to limit the spread especially to those people who may not recover.

With this I am signing off. I have said my piece. Everyone can do what they want. I cannot control what others do. I can only control how I react to what others do.

I totally agree with you. Not arguing. Just stating what I’ve researched. 

[AntonioGG]

1 hour ago, 4fun said:

Can you Imagine with a single payer, this is my right for you to serve me attitude and by the way I’m going to cut your salary in half. 

Are you maybe confusing socialized medicine with single-payer?

Anyone that would like to see the alternatives being used out there in capitalist nations for healthcare should watch this documentary.  It's pretty old but it gives you an idea of the different systems, the benefits of each, and the problems with each. 

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/sickaroundtheworld/

[bestbike85]

Fun fact a doctor told me this morning: you cannot have the flu and coronavirus simultaneously. 
 

Don’t kill the messenger as the messenger lays in bed with the flu and a 102.4 temp. 

[AustinBike]

Went out for an urban ride. Got about 2 miles before it started raining.

F-that.

Go home and drink?

Nope in quarantine conditions you want to make sure you don't run out too quick.

Oh well, filed taxes and taking care of miscellaneous bills at this point.

[ATXZJ]

 little levity is due (NSFW)

 

 

[AustinBike]

As long as we are laughing...

 

[4fun]

1 hour ago, AntonioGG said:

Are you maybe confusing socialized medicine with single-payer?

Anyone that would like to see the alternatives being used out there in capitalist nations for healthcare should watch this documentary.  It's pretty old but it gives you an idea of the different systems, the benefits of each, and the problems with each. 

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/sickaroundtheworld/

I was assuming the single payer would be the fed govt. if it’s private industry, as single payer I think that could be incredibly abused. Or I may not understand the concept at all.  

[AntonioGG]

5 minutes ago, 4fun said:

I was assuming the single payer would be the fed govt. if it’s private industry, as single payer I think that could be incredibly abused. Or I may not understand the concept at all.  

Fed govt as the insurer, not the service provider.

[ATXZJ]

24 minutes ago, AntonioGG said:

Fed govt as the insurer, not the service provider.

yes^ 

ill never understand why this is such a difficult concept for people to grasp.

The insurance company is just a rapacious middle man between you and your health. ACA just subsidizes insurance companies to expand services to more people. With a medicare for all system we just subsidize people instead of the insurance companies, and all their admin and legal council who are focused on denying your claim, so they meet earnings expectations for next quarter.

Nothing is perfect and you can find fault in any system. However, when was the last time we actually won a war? I don't see anyone pushing for de-funding the military. Its quite the opposite. 

[AustinBike]

Those that say "I don't want some bureaucrat between me and my doctor" don't understand that the current alternative is a for-profit executive between you and your doctor.

In the former, public shame can be used (like now) to get the government to step up and do something. In the latter, you are relying on a person to willing make less profit and get a smaller bonus. My money is on the bureaucrat, I am living the hell of privatized healthcare right now. For $1,442.26 a month my wife still had to sit on the phone for several hours in regards to covering a routine mammogram, something that is literally listed out as being covered. It is not just money, it is time and sanity.

[Chief]

19 minutes ago, AustinBike said:

Those that say "I don't want some bureaucrat between me and my doctor" don't understand that the current alternative is a for-profit executive between you and your doctor.

In the former, public shame can be used (like now) to get the government to step up and do something. In the latter, you are relying on a person to willing make less profit and get a smaller bonus. My money is on the bureaucrat, I am living the hell of privatized healthcare right now. For $1,442.26 a month my wife still had to sit on the phone for several hours in regards to covering a routine mammogram, something that is literally listed out as being covered. It is not just money, it is time and sanity.

My premiums were $1700.00 for two people and when I looked into the Affordable healthcare act it was the same premium for less coverage and higher deductibles.

[June Bug]

1 hour ago, AustinBike said:

As long as we are laughing...

 

Thank you!  I didn't know I needed that.  John Mulaney may be the funniest human alive. 

[throet]

1 hour ago, AntonioGG said:

Fed govt as the insurer, not the service provider.

The sad thing is that big insurance doesn't really provide that much insurance. When you exclude Medicare and Medicaid, 60% of what's left is self-funded, mostly by large employers. The insurance giants just get paid to administer the delivery of healthcare, i.e. forming provider networks, maintaining eligibility, processing claims, etc., and skimming 20 cents off of every health care dollar to do so. The true cost to administer should be between 8-12% (less if inefficiencies were addressed). So the difference just goes to shareholders and executive salaries / bonuses. What has made this system so dangerous over the years is that there are no checks and balances. While it is true that under some plans services will be denied by the insurer, for most employer plans it doesn't matter to them because the claim payments just get passed through to whoever is sponsoring / funding the care anyway. In the insurance world claim payments are referred to as "medical loss" but it is only for the small percentage of underwritten risk that the medical expense actually sits on the insurer's books. Most of it just gets passed through to the sponsoring entity. Either way, the lever for keeping the numbers "right" is to simply raise premiums for us consumers. 

EDIT: It's 60% of private health insurance that is self-funded vs. the 90% I had originally stated. The 90% only applied for employers with 5000+ employees. Still the majority though! 

Edited March 15, 2020 by throet

[4fun]

4 hours ago, throet said:

Haha I wondered about your math too but your point was very well taken. This graph tells it all, and if both lines keep moving in the same direction, we will have much more than viruses to worry about! 

I know nothing about tech anything, but from what I’ve heard about what the 5G network will allow computers to do, I think the lines on that graph will separate very rapidly in near future. I’m currently much more scared of the 5G network vs. getting The corona virus. 
I’m am scared of the corona virus impact on my wife’s 25 employee business though.

Edited March 15, 2020 by 4fun

[TheX]

I welcome 5G with open arms. It's going to give me the ability to do amazing things, and allow even more of my reports to work seamlessly from just about anywhere.