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Strangest COVID-19 stuff you have witnessed


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21 hours ago, ATXZJ said:

Campbell's newest video regarding data tracking in US and WHO response to covid 19 outbreak.

 

Osterholm's newest with some good discussion for those with children and loved ones returning to school.

 

 

It's too bad the CDC has been padding the numbers. 🤣

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Some wisdom and common sense from Mike Rowe. Worth the read.


Mike. In a recent post, you said you’ve been to Tennessee and Georgia, giving speeches and filming for your new show. Before that, you were on the road shooting for Dirty Jobs. Is it really so important to film a television show in the midst of pandemic? Is it responsible of you to encourage this kind of behavior when infection rates are spiking? Don’t you watch the news? More and more cases every day – aren’t you concerned?

Darlene Gabon

Hi Darlene

Of course, I’m concerned. I’m just not petrified.

On March 15th, the day after my part of the country was locked down, I posted a link to an interview with Dr. Michael Osterholm. I’m posting it again, because I believe you and everyone else in the country would benefit from listening carefully to what he has to say. https://bit.ly/2WLOM6o

Dr. Osterholm is the Director of Infectious Disease Research and Policy. This is the same epidemiologist who ten years ago, predicted a coronavirus would come from China and turn our country upside down. In his book “Deadliest Enemies,” he anticipated the utterly irresponsible way in which the media would report on the situation, the completely opportunistic and shamelessly political way our leaders would likely react, and the unprecedented chaos and confusion that would arise from all the mixed messages from the medical community. His resume is unexampled, https://bit.ly/3jvzQTW, and his analysis of the situation is the most logical and persuasive of any I’d heard so far. He’s also the only expert I know of who hasn’t walked back his numbers, reconsidered his position, or moved the goalposts with regard to what we must do, what we can do, and what he expects to happen next. I say all of this because Dr. Osterholm publicly predicted - in early MArch - that we could conservatively see over 100 million COVID cases in this country, with a very strong possibility of 480,000 fatalities – even if we successfully “flattened the curve.”

It took me a few weeks to accept this scenario, because 480,000 fatalities is a frightening number, and lot of other experts were saying lots of conflicting things. But eventually, I came to the conclusion that Dr. Osterholm was probably correct, and quickly navigated the four stages of grief that usually precede acceptance – denial, anger, bargaining, and depression. By late April, I had come to accept Dr. Osterholm’s predictions as a matter of fact. Since then, I’ve had three full months to come to terms with the fact that, a) I am probably going to get COVID-19 at some point, b), I am almost certainly going to survive it, and c), I might very well give it to someone else.

I hope that doesn’t sound blasé, or glib, or fatalistic, or selfish. Four-hundred eighty thousand deaths is an obvious tragedy, and I’m deeply sympathetic to all who have been impacted thus far. I’m also very concerned for my parents, and everyone else in a high risk category. But when Dr. Osterholm says that COVID can be slowed but not stopped, I believe him. When he says a vaccine will not necessarily hasten herd immunity, I believe him. And when he says that people have confused “flattening the curve” with "eliminating the virus," I believe him.

Thus, for the last three months, I’ve been operating from the assumption that this is a year-round virus that’s eventually going to infect 100 million people and kill roughly 1/2 of one percent of those infected, conservatively. I’ve accepted those numbers. Unfortunately, millions of others have not. Many people have no sense of where this is headed, and I understand why. They've been betrayed by a hysterical media that insists on covering each new reported case as if it were the first case. Every headline today drips with dread, as the next doomed hotspot approaches the next "grim milestone." And so, for a lot of people, everyday is Groundhogs Day. They're paralyzed by the rising numbers because the numbers have no context. They don't know where it will end. But Dr. Osterholm says he does, and I'm persuaded that he's correct. He might be wrong, and frankly, I hope he is, but either way, he's presented us with a set of projections based on a logical analysis, and accepting those projections has allowed me to move past denial, anger, bargaining, and depression, and get on with my life with a better understanding of what the risks really are.

Fact is, we the people can accept almost anything if we’re given the facts, and enough time to get evaluate the risk and make our own decisions. Last year in this country, there were six million traffic accidents and 36,000 fatalities. Tragic, for sure. But imagine for a moment if no one had ever died from a car accident. Imagine if this year, America endured six million traffic accidents and 36,000 fatalities...for the first time ever. Now, imagine if these accidents and fatalities - over 16,000 and 90 per day respectively - imagine if they were reported upon like every new incidence of COVID. What would that do to our willingness to drive? For a while, I suspect it would keep us all off the roads, right? I mean, six million accidents out of the blue is a lot to process, and 36,000 deaths is scary – especially if you don’t know how high that number could get. It would take us a while to access the risk, before we blindly hopped into our cars again. Eventually though - after getting some context and perspective - we'd be able to evaluate the relative danger of operating a motor vehicle. Then, we could decide for ourselves when to drive, where to drive, and how much to drive. And so we do.

Again, don’t misunderstand. I’m not ignoring COVID, or downplaying COVID, or pretending the risks at hand aren’t real. Nor am I comparing COVID cases to car accidents - I'm simply comparing the fear of each to the other, and the fear that always accompanies uncertainty. I don’t want to get this disease or give it to someone else, any more than I want to be in a car car wreck that injures someone else. But I've accepted certain things about the pandemic, and now, I've gotten used to the risk as I understand it. I take precautions. I get tested as often as I can, and if I can't physically distance, I wear a mask – especially around higher risk people. Likewise, I wear a seatbelt, obey the speed limits, and check my mirrors before changing lanes. Yes - I’m aware that we’d all be a lot safer if we kept our cars in the garage. I’m also aware we’d be a lot safer if we all kept ourselves in the house. But that’s not why cars, or people, exist.

Anyway Darlene, that’s a long way of saying that I have accepted Dr. Osterholm’s numbers, and now, after three months of acceptance, I’ve made a decision on how I wish to live my life. Sooner or later, you will too. We all will.

Mike

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Covid is here, and it's real. But it is not going away, and herd immunity should be our goal. If you choose to stay home, that's your right. If you choose to live your life, I'll be out there with you. If the business requires a mask, I'll have one on. Otherwise, I'll smile so you'll know it's me.

You can stay home for the next 6 months, but it will be there when you go out again. A vaccine isn't guaranteed, and the virus will evolve and require new vaccines, just like the flu every year. I get why people are scared, and the MSM selling your clicks is more than happy to make it sound like we're all going to be on ventilators, and dying any day now.

We aren't, though some will get sick...some very sick. But the rest will go on. Checked with my nurse, and director friends this morning. Their hospitals and ER's are not full, and the ICUs are running at or near normal capacity, like always.

I don't want to change your mind, but I also don't give a fuck what you think of my opinion or actions. Stay 6 feet away from me, and have a nice day!

Edited by TheX
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26 minutes ago, TheX said:

I don't want to change your mind, but I also don't give a fuck what you think of my opinion or actions. Stay 6 feet away from me, and have a nice day!


If that were true you wouldn't be posting what you just did. So, as you've proven many times before, you're just a dishonest little twerp.

"Bartman... Bartman... Come and get RidingAgain for me...".

 

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1 hour ago, TheX said:

. Stay 6 feet away from me, and have a nice day!

Your entire post is good except for this. I try as hard as I am able to avoid maskless people. But sometimes they sneak up on me and enter my "sphere." THEY aren't concerned about the social distancing concept. Again, wearing a mask in those indoor, close quarter instances, is not a hard thing to do. Even if you feel it doesn't help the cause, why agitate your fellow human by not doing it?

Mike Rowe is cool. I can't remember what it was but I read something else of his one time pontificating on a semi-political subject. Very logical thinker he is. I too have used the traffic death to pandemic analogy before.

Edited by The Tip
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I struggle with the auto accident analogy........

Say there were 72k accidents per day involving a ford fusion and a resulting 1100 deaths. That brings the total ford fusion involved accidents in the US to over 4 million since feb and 143k deaths. Do you think we'd get those ford fusions off the street? 

 

We all need to stop crying, and stay home. Its a year. Twelve fucking months. Prior to this, everyone bitched that they didn't have enough time to themselves for projects or to connect with family. Now we have it and that's not good enough. We are all lucky enough to be gainfully employed and have the luxury of keeping a roof over our heads and food on our tables. A lot more than we can say for the other half of america who are quite fucked at this very moment. I haven't been inside a grocery store since march 13th and i love it. I never liked having to shop to begin with, and probably wont go back once this is over. 

While I agree we already have, or will be exposed to the virus at some point, I'd rather limit the level of exposure until there are better procedures to deal with it. Just like the way we were sticking people on ventilators in the beginning and then realized that's not the best option. This virus' learning curve is a long burn and I'm willing to wait it out as I don't want any complications from having contracted the disease and lived.  Also, not to mention any surprise medical bills that insurance companies are doing their very best to get out of paying.

During this pandemic I've learned there is a big difference between want and need. Please stay out of crowds/public setting unless you absolutely need to be there. We need to keep the people who work in hospitals (i.e. our friends and family) as safe as possible by not being overrun with the rona. 

 

just my crap 2c

 

Edited by ATXZJ
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20 minutes ago, ATXZJ said:

 

I struggle with the auto accident analogy........

Did you read the Mike Rowe thing? The point of it is that you know there is risk involved with both activities. But, you do all you can to lesson the risk, and continue to engage in the activities.

You don't pointlessly drive around on a whim. You don't go out during a pandemic on a whim. But you DO drive when you have to and you DO live life as normally as  possible during a pandemic. 

Right now I am having problems with the shutting down of the breweries. We went to one a few weeks ago. It couldn't have been set up in a safer way. We haven't been to a restaurant since this has started because we are nervous about it. But we felt very safe sitting at a picnic table by ourselves 30 feet from anyone else drinking a beer. 

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1 hour ago, The Tip said:

Did you read the Mike Rowe thing? The point of it is that you know there is risk involved with both activities. But, you do all you can to lesson the risk, and continue to engage in the activities.

You don't pointlessly drive around on a whim. You don't go out during a pandemic on a whim. But you DO drive when you have to and you DO live life as normally as  possible during a pandemic. 

Right now I am having problems with the shutting down of the breweries. We went to one a few weeks ago. It couldn't have been set up in a safer way. We haven't been to a restaurant since this has started because we are nervous about it. But we felt very safe sitting at a picnic table by ourselves 30 feet from anyone else drinking a beer. 

I do like some of his thought process on covid, particularly since he is referencing osterholm. However, if there were 1k drunks on the road in your zipcode would you take your family out for a drive? Weld in a cage, and put on a helmet? Agree its a bit of russian roulette. I've been rocking a full N95 when I need to go into a business for work and GTFO as soon as I can. Under 5 minutes usually.

I have friends who work/manage breweries and they have been laid off, then hired back, only to be laid off again. I've been employed in an industry for three decades that has been ravaged each and every recession and left with nothing but to rebuild again. I understand. This is the first time the liquor business has been hit like this from both sides. Usually, people drink to celebrate, or they drown their sorrows so because of this, the business has weathered the economic storms a little better. I suppose it's their turn this time, just like it was housing/construction in 08. It's not good either way.

In the end it falls at the feet of our well paid leadership to get creative and keep commerce moving as much as it can while reducing the spread. They have failed at both. 

Edited by ATXZJ
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14 minutes ago, ATXZJ said:

 However, if there were 1k drunks on the road in your zipcode would you take your family out for a drive? Weld in a cage, and put on a helmet?

No, I wouldn't take the family out for a pleasure cruise. Not worth the risk vs the reward.

But I would drive to the store to get food to feed them. (And I would wear a mask! lol)

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19 minutes ago, The Tip said:

 

But I would drive to the store to get food to feed them. (And I would wear a mask! lol)

This we totally agree on. My ass ache is with all the dumbfucks going out "just because". 

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Everyday we put ourselves at risk of injury or death. We've learned to live this way throughout our evolution that's why we are still here on this planet. Most of us have learned to make calculated decisions to ensure our survival. This goes for many things we do day to day. For some just going to work is an injury or death risk but we learn how to deal with these risks and eventually share this information with others around us. I've been in more than a dozen car accidents almost half of them totaled cars. I still ride in cars and drive cars but I have a certain amount of control when driving a car and I try to be as careful as possible not just for me but for the other drivers as well. As mountain bikers we understand the risk of injury or death and take steps to reduce the possibility of those things happening. As far as COVID is concerned we should be doing the same. Herd immunity IS THE ONLY WAY we can get through this and at some point we will have that. The issue is in the way it happens. Ideally any vaccine that helps is probably the safest way to get there. I'd prefer getting immunity from a vaccine as opposed to getting it from some selfish fuck that doesn't care about themselves or anyone around them. I personally don't think wearing a mask and keeping your distance as well as avoiding crowded poorly ventilated buildings is asking too much to try and ensure our survival. Just because our leaders are making poor decisions doesn't mean we should too.

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3 hours ago, Chief said:

. I've been in more than a dozen car accidents almost half of them totaled cars.

Note to self: Don't get in a car with Chief. 😉

 

And what a smart thing to bring up, the risks taken as mountain bikers. All of this is a risk/reward decision. 

Edited by The Tip
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Just found out about a husband and wife we know who got the virus... They live in Miami Beach, FL, and were out of commission for about six weeks but recovered. Although somewhat back in society, they are still unsure of how to conduct themselves... And unsure of what the longterm effect will be.

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Yes, generally at the end of the Daily New Cases chart as it has dramatically grown of the past month, deaths have also begun to creep up.  

Here's a real question:

Why was it that early in the Daily New Cases chart when the numbers were roughly 1/2 of what they are now, the proportionate deaths were up about 2.5x as to where they are now?  Real question, I'm not motivated by ideology.  Another way to ask/look at it....when looking at the graphs in a more macro fashion the ratios are almost inverted.  Early in the graphs Mar to Mid-May the deaths were WAY up, but the new cases were proportionately way lower.  Now the new cases are at all-time high, but the deaths are way down at the lower end (of the entire graph).

Thanks
CJB

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I was looking at the chart and trying to think through it some more...

It more so doesn't make sense considering that there is usually a 30'ish delay window from getting the disease to death.  However, I also think the numbers in the charts could be skewed by the probability that we didn't have near as much testing capacity early on?  Thus we were not capturing a true picture of infection....but are we now??  I definitely don't like seeing the up-tic in deaths over the past week, but I do like seeing the overall trend of deaths drop so dramatically since the early April timeframe.  Numbers and charts are only as good as the info behind them.  And right now, I'm don't feel I have (or am getting) a clear picture from most anywhere.

Cheers,
CJB

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