Tesla in Austin

[Ridenfool]

21 hours ago, AustinBike said:

I worked a lot with people doing AI and full self driving. The challenges are less technical and more ethical. 
 

Additionally FSD is not safer. There are two things that make it more dangerous, real drivers and standards. 
 

FSD is safer if 100% of the cars have FSD. But as long as there is some number of real drivers it is actually more dangerous because you can’t model real drivers, you can only model *most* drivers and that uncertainty causes huge latency and decision making problems. 

The other thing is standards. The only way FSD works is if there is a standard that all companies adhere to and all systems are interconnected into. Elon is not gonna give up his Crown Jewels, the only way it would ever work is if the government ran it. Which will never happen. Which is why we will never see your autonomous taxi or true FSD. It is not the technology it is the environment. We still have cars running on lead fuel and cars without seatbelts. 

I didn't say FSD is safer now. I tried to imply how they will continue to develop it and not broadly release it until they know it is significantly safer than a human driver (10x?). They are constantly improving, but have not got there, yet. YouTube videos from FSD Beta testers abound.

There are several companies in the running to solve it. We'll see how it goes. Tesla is the only one with over a million vehicles contributing data and thousands testing it in monitored real world application.

As for the Crown Jewels, years ago Elon offered all Tesla patents up for others to use to improve their products. The company goal is literally, "To accelerate the transition to sustainable energy" not to maximize profit, pay dividends, or the usual corporate goals. They have been quite open to collaboration if it gets this goal accomplished sooner. They have stated multiple times how important it is to that goal that the other OEMs succeed in helping do this.

 

Edit: Regarding overall safety, here's a link to Tesla's Safety Report. Based upon the most recent data, driving a Tesla is nearly 10 times safer than the national average for miles using the driver assist features, and 3 times safer than the national average without those features engaged.

TLDR: From Q4 2021 statistics drop-down on the above link,

"In the 4th quarter, we recorded one crash for every 4.31 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology (Autosteer and active safety features). For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology (no Autosteer and active safety features), we recorded one crash for every 1.59 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles."

Note: Tesla's Autopilot is a different system than FSD

Edited January 15, 2022 by Ridenfool

[Ridenfool]

I'm right there with y'all on actual utility for my use cases. There is no current EV that can replace the Ford Transit I use for camping, MTB road trips, and trail work. Though a volunteer trail worker showed up in Model Y at RHR last month and they drove it out to the work site on the Jeep trails. I think a Model Y would be a good replacement for my Ford Focus which lacks adequate ground clearance and AWD. There is a Cybertruck reservation with my name on it, but I don't expect to see my name called for a few years after production begins as there are more than a million reservations ahead of mine.

 

As for the tunnels, the problem with making them has always been the time and cost to get 'er done. Prufrock, Boring's latest TBM, is expected to initially make tunnel at ~1 mile per week (750 ft/day). Their goal is to someday beat Gary the Snail's pace. For comparison, I've read how traditional TBMs average between 50 and 100 feet per day.

Prufrock is currently working on expanding the line in Las Vegas due to the success it has had in meeting the expectations at the Convention Center. They won the LVCC bid after the customer compared all other alternatives and Boring's price and timeline could not be matched in the quoting process. Boring Co. completed the project ahead of schedule and the use at the CES last week met all expectations for people moved per hour. Show attendees gave it high marks as well.

[Ridenfool]

If you have some time on the way back to Austin after riding at Rocky Hill you can now take a Tesla for a test drive at Buc-ee's in Bastrop.

They have at least one of each model to select from, and Beaver Nuggets in the store to enjoy afterwards. What a treat after a ride in the pines!

 

 

[Barry]

Probably going to get some pretty annoying sales calls/emails/texts now...

[Ridenfool]

Tesla is actually prohibited by the Texas Auto Dealers Association's lobby-created statutes from conducting sales and marketing like that at their showrooms in Texas.

All manufacturers are prohibited from owning a dealership (discussing price, having sales, displaying pricing, etc.) in Texas, thus forcing car buyers to suffer through the painful time-consuming process and hounding by salesfolk they experience at all other privately owned dealerships stealerships.

Even in states where they are allowed to, Tesla doesn't play dat. Tesla sales are conducted via their website. An online purchase made at your leisure. They have bragged about how you can buy a Tesla in under two minutes, rubbing the nose of the usual, horrid auto sales critters in it.

At the last annual meeting Elon did say that at sometime in the future they may consider advertising. May. They have never paid for advertising up to now.

I think you have little to be concerned about. 🙂

Edited June 12, 2023 by Ridenfool

[AntonioGG]

I’m not anything close to a Tesla fan boi (ask me and I’ll tell you what I hate about my car, the company, and Elon…I’ll also tell you what they do well), but the whole test and purchase experience beats anything else out there.  I wish they adopted the philosophy in other industries that kill small forests to do something *cough* mortgage *cough* and the ones that are super aggressive once they have your contact info (car dealers!)

[AustinBike]

EVs in general are changing the industry. All of the traditional vendors have huge demand for electric vehicles and are *generally* only offering them direct because of the backlog.

This is the way the industry needs to go.

It will get there. 

The whole "build to inventory" model is broken and has been for years. You plow all of your capital into inventory, price it high and then play tons of games with rebates and negotiating in order to sell what you have on hand. Or chase it down from another deal and trade inventory to get the customer what they want. The number of people that MUST have a new car today, because theirs is inoperable, is really small. Most people start the process with months before they need to replace their cars.

All of this needs to change.

[ATXZJ]

After spending over three decades in the auto industry i can definitely agree it needs to be changed, and will now never be the same post-covid.

Also feel EVs are not the solution.