Ridenfool

Two more berms went in yesterday on Lemonade, created by the Berm Meister. He passed on to me receiving feedback from a few TMBRA racers about how pleased they are with the trail improvements and flow, quoting "It is like a whole new Rocky Hill." I'm headed out today to finish some more bench cutting on the newest section. It won't be part of this month's TMBRA race route, but it is open to day use riders and needs traffic to bed it in. This extends Corkscrew and includes a new section of Holden's Way part 2 (a recently added 10 and Under race section) into the overall loop. Here's a shot of where Corkscrew now begins as a Y off of Holden's Way. ... and here's one of where it comes back into existing trail, roughly where the Ike's Peak section used to be (for the old timers who remember it). The merging hairpin seen to the left will be retired after the Rocky Hill Roundup race.

It is going to be sloppy, then cold as... well, you know. 🥶 Might be tolerable again on Sunday. On the bright side, some work done over the past few days will net a 0.2 mile extension to the overall loop. This gets the loop very close to 9 miles now if Other Way is included. More to come.

Paul has been marking the course and it ought to be ready for pre-riding this weekend. The current "Rocky Hill Loop" route and .gpx file is available on MTBProject and will be updated as more trail is added. (TrailForks have been provided the new track and have yet to respond or update their data)

We were out piddling around on Corkscrew yesterday and did a couple hundred feet of bench cutting off-camber sections and trail widening, as well as significant work on one of the steep switchbacks that I hope will make it flow better. The bench cuts lead into this turn and should allow riders to get a good head of steam as they approach it. Going forward, my focus has shifted to a new trail I've scouted that will add about a mile to the overall loop. This trail will be named Litter Box and will make good use of many, many piles left behind by Cats (earth movers) that were digging there over the years and which had taken some legacy trail sections in the process. Yet another example of making more lemonade from all the lemons acquired over the past decade of Caterpillar infestation.

The Berm Meister, Paul, has been busy and there are several more new berms freshly grown in key turns. I straightened out the end of the new trail that had an "S" turn to bring it out on Switchback just before crossing the road. It wasn't fun this way, so the congestion is is now gone. The new trail now finishes on the legacy line it already follows from a long retired trail. It took hours to clean up the last 30 foot section that had a fallen Cedar to cut into smaller pieces, and a healthy Yaupon population to thin out. It now flows much better into the next section leading to Water 1. While I was working on that, Paul built another sweet berm. 🤷‍♂️

As far as I know, yes. Here's their Day Use page. https://www.rockyhillranch.com/day-use For perspective, I think Bluff Creek Ranch, nearby, has been the same price as RHR for years while always offering a little less trail than RHR has now. Fortunately, neither place charges by the lap. 😉

Knocked out several more bench cuts on Corkscrew. Got immediate positive feedback from a local rider while working on the last one for the day. Thank goodness for the imminent Blue Norther, I can get a couple of days rest.

Got a ride in today and managed an 8.7 mile loop with the new section and taking Other Way and Freeride Road back to Karaway, then picking up an optional section of Black Trak that is taped closed for now. So much fun we rode another lap for a total of 17.4 miles for the day. Getting back to managing a proper RHR ride again! My plan is to add another 0.3 miles to that BT option and make it all part of the regular loop. That would bring the total to 9 miles. Look for this addition in the coming weeks. Paul is working on another section that might net another 2 - 3 miles. It will have some machine-cut sections, so hopes are that the build will go a little quicker than my organic, hand-picked Yaupon method. Oh, and there is a tree down on Loblolly, the new trail in the NW corner of the property.

And, for folks that prefer charts and numbers this video delivers ...

Here's a video presenting a synopsis based upon the presenter's perspective over about a year's time regarding TSLA's Secret Army of HODLers and what motivates them. (a HODLer is a long-term investor who is unwilling to sell due to short-term market action, instead they Hold On for Dear Life to the stock) I hope some find this helpful in explaining what all the fuss is about without having to listen to someone like me rattle on incessantly. 😉

I put wheels on the new section just before the sun went down. Made three passes in each direction. It seems to flow well both ways, but won't know for sure until it has some traffic to beat it into proper trail. Ribbons are up to direct traffic onto it, so day use riders will start burning it in on Saturday. Best news is how it measures out at 0.25 mile instead of the 0.2 I was expecting. Due mostly to my murdering some extra Yaupon to extend it a little as I finished it up this afternoon. I hope folks like it. Next project is putting an optional section on Black Trac into the game permanently, for the extra couple of tenths it will add to the overall loop.

I'm right there with y'all on actual utility for my use cases. There is no current EV that can replace the Ford Transit I use for camping, MTB road trips, and trail work. Though a volunteer trail worker showed up in Model Y at RHR last month and they drove it out to the work site on the Jeep trails. I think a Model Y would be a good replacement for my Ford Focus which lacks adequate ground clearance and AWD. There is a Cybertruck reservation with my name on it, but I don't expect to see my name called for a few years after production begins as there are more than a million reservations ahead of mine. As for the tunnels, the problem with making them has always been the time and cost to get 'er done. Prufrock, Boring's latest TBM, is expected to initially make tunnel at ~1 mile per week (750 ft/day). Their goal is to someday beat Gary the Snail's pace. For comparison, I've read how traditional TBMs average between 50 and 100 feet per day. Prufrock is currently working on expanding the line in Las Vegas due to the success it has had in meeting the expectations at the Convention Center. They won the LVCC bid after the customer compared all other alternatives and Boring's price and timeline could not be matched in the quoting process. Boring Co. completed the project ahead of schedule and the use at the CES last week met all expectations for people moved per hour. Show attendees gave it high marks as well.

I didn't say FSD is safer now. I tried to imply how they will continue to develop it and not broadly release it until they know it is significantly safer than a human driver (10x?). They are constantly improving, but have not got there, yet. YouTube videos from FSD Beta testers abound. There are several companies in the running to solve it. We'll see how it goes. Tesla is the only one with over a million vehicles contributing data and thousands testing it in monitored real world application. As for the Crown Jewels, years ago Elon offered all Tesla patents up for others to use to improve their products. The company goal is literally, "To accelerate the transition to sustainable energy" not to maximize profit, pay dividends, or the usual corporate goals. They have been quite open to collaboration if it gets this goal accomplished sooner. They have stated multiple times how important it is to that goal that the other OEMs succeed in helping do this. Edit: Regarding overall safety, here's a link to Tesla's Safety Report. Based upon the most recent data, driving a Tesla is nearly 10 times safer than the national average for miles using the driver assist features, and 3 times safer than the national average without those features engaged. TLDR: From Q4 2021 statistics drop-down on the above link, "In the 4th quarter, we recorded one crash for every 4.31 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology (Autosteer and active safety features). For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology (no Autosteer and active safety features), we recorded one crash for every 1.59 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles." Note: Tesla's Autopilot is a different system than FSD

You are right. I am an Elon fanbois and registered cult member. 😁 I get it that the enthusiasm pouring from me and others of my ilk can be a bit overwhelming. I apologize for my part in that. Thing is, anyone who actually looks into Tesla and TSLA stock in any depth will find the fandom substantiated by the vision and performance delivered to date, as well as the prospects of what is on the horizon. Despite Elon's sometimes over-optimistic timelines, the fact remains that eventually he has consistently delivered on what was promised. Shouldn't that count for something? I never expected to live during a time when someone with Di Vinci's vision for the future, and Thomas Edison and Nicola Tesla's problem solving skills would be doing their magic in my backyard. Being a lifelong science fiction fan, it is dream come true to live in a world where what was once fantasy becomes a part of every day life on a regular basis thanks solely to a real-life Tony Stark being among us. Who else: is currently reusing rockets and bringing the cost of access to space down to unprecedented levels (SpaceX); brought affordable internet access to every square mile of the planet surface (Starlink); has demonstrated to the auto industry how they must migrate to electric or go bankrupt (Tesla); created energy solutions that significantly reduce the costs of electricity and improve grid reliability (Tesla); has helped pioneer medical implants to address a wide variety of brain/nervous system issues (Neurolink); deployed a tunneling machine that is orders of magnitude faster than previous efforts with myriad applications for freight and people transport and then built those tunnels (Boring Co.) These things are no longer the dreams of science fiction writers. They each exist, now, because of Elon Musk. The fact that anyone can also invest in TSLA with a high potential of huge annual gains continuing through the end of the decade doesn't suck either. As long as you don't mind a roller coaster ride to the top. The motto of the long-term TSLA investors is HODL (Hold On for Dear Life). Heck, there are people working on the assembly line at Tesla's Fremont, CA facility who have become millionaires through the stock option plan, and, keep working at Tesla because they love the culture of the workplace. (give or take the one crazy who murdered a co-worker recently) Thanks to Elon, I get to build trails and ride all I want to. If this alone isn't reason enough for obsession I don't know what else would be. Here's some Kool-aid 🥤, try it, you'll like it. 😏

The Robotaxi is something Tesla hopes to bring as an option once they get the A.I. for their FSD (Full Self Driving software) polished. This would be a driverless car that can be summoned via a phone app. Cost of the service is expected to be in the <$0.25 per mile range and would provide the convenience of a private car without ownership/insurance/storage/upkeep hassles, and avoiding the "people" factor of using Uber/Lyft/Public Transit. FSD is at version 11 and the thousands of Beta testers along with the developers are whittling away at the march of 9s (99.999999... = higher safety rating) with a goal of reaching FSD being 10 times safer than human operation. This is likely still a couple of years out, and will revolutionize transportation options for many people who are unable to drive, or prefer to avoid ownership of a vehicle.

That Canoo is pretty cool. What most people don't realize about this new crop of EVs is how the Green aspect is no longer the strongest selling point. They are higher performance while also being safer, have significantly lower operating costs while also being more reliable, require almost zero periodic maintenance, are designed to last much longer than ICE vehicles, and in the not too distant future will cost less to purchase. They already cost less over the life of the vehicle. Oh, and yeah, they'll help save the planet too. If that is important to a buyer.

Have just about finished another 0.2 mile extension of Hard Boil that adds to the overall loop. This section will come off of Switchback a couple of hundred feet before the road crossing leading to Water 1. It will follow parts of the retired original Hard Boil trail downhill and back up to come out at the road crossing. Hopefully, it will be fun to ride. Another new 0.3 mile section of Hard Boil will be added next and will complete the transition of a few hundred feet of existing trail into a half mile of new trail. If all goes well tomorrow this new section will be open for traffic this weekend, and with the outdoor AC set to the 50s and sunny weather on Saturday and Sunday maybe it will get some wheels on it besides just mine. A few days ago I did a slow ride around the loop with 15" Fiskars Power Gear loppers hanging from the pack's waist belt and trimmed back some face-slappers and other offensive flora. Lastly, Paul has put in two short trails, Holden's Way (Part 1) is a bypass trail to avoid a technical climb out of the Primitive Campground that gets you to the Y for Fat Chuck's and Grey's Way. Holden's Way (Part 2) bypasses Corkscrew's climbs. These trails allow "10 and Under" racers, and anyone else, an easier route as a tradeoff for losing some distance and challenge on a Loop ride. The new Rocky Hill Ranch loop is getting better and better. Come get ya some sweet miles in the Pines.

The bet was based upon what the gold price would do over the following twelve months. I said it would go up, you said it wouldn't. The price rose. 'Nuff said. You owe me 🌮🌮. Yes, Habanero sauce would be good with those. 😋 As for Tesla performance as a company ... In part due to some of the points you made back then I developed more interest in the market. Over a period from late 2019 to mid 2020 the metals were sold at their peak and TSLA shares were purchased. Thanks for your part in steering my focus in this direction. TSLA is up 16X (1600%) since November of 2019 and joined the S&P 100 and 500 in late 2020, and has since been contributing to S&P growth. This is what that meteoric rise looks like as a chart. There is a saying on Wall Street, "The trend is your friend" which is well illustrated here. As for profits... Here's a link to MacroTrends TSLA page, and their Gross Profits chart, below. Here's a link to Tesla's published quarterly reports for a deep dive on any of the particulars. Keep in mind how the remarkable profits over the past few years were achieved while Tesla designed and constructed three gigantic production facilities at locations in China, Germany, and Texas, and: doubled the size of their Supercharger network grew their Service Centers by 34% expanded their Energy business built their Dojo A.I. learning computer pioneered breakthrough battery manufacturing (4680, Dry Electrode process, Lithium extraction process, etc.) and essentially piled all they could into growing the business and still have nearly $20B in the bank for future growth In addition, Tesla: designed the Cybertruck (slated for production in 2022) is delivering 15 Tesla Semis to Pepsico this month grew production and deliveries at greater than 50% per year, repeatedly received orders from Hertz for 100K vehicles at list pricing to be added to their rental fleet achieved all of this while being the most shorted and most optioned stock in market history (overcame a LOT of resistance) Tesla has for years also been the focus of media FUD reporting (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) where trivial events are sensationalized about Tesla in comparison to identical events for other OEMs being played down. Fortunately, the tide seems to be turning on that remarkable campaign to malign the marque. To me, Tesla remains a golden opportunity for years to come. Granted, I agree with you about how the returns are better than those for metals. This in no way changes how our bet played out over that year. 😁

AB, you know I'm a betting man. Some day I'll get that taco from you for the last bet we made on gold years ago. You need to look at Tesla's numbers. Their Earnings Call for Q4 2021 is coming up in two weeks. It should be amazing based upon the preliminary reports of automotive production and deliveries for 2021. Bottom line, they are not growing the company at a rate of over 50%/year based only upon the energy credits other OEMs have to purchase to avoid fines due to regulations in the US, EU, etc. Granted, those credits were responsible for the ink turning from red to black in the quarterly reports sooner than Tesla would have done without them. Those credits in no way affected Elon's original plan for 50% annual growth through 2030 that was presented back in 2014 (if memory serves me) and has run true to date. It would have happened with or without the credits. They were gravy. Now, they are insignificant. I sincerely hope that GM, Ford, etc. can make the transition. Battery supply is the limiting factor and they are between five and ten years behind in securing the batteries they will require in order to ramp EV production. Tesla was just shy of 1 million vehicles produced in 2021. Compare that to Ford and GM's EV production numbers to get a better feel for how they are doing. Tesla's goal is to produce 20 million vehicles annually by 2030. This, in an auto market that is currently about 100 million sales a year, globally. There need to be many more EV manufacturers, as more buyers are seeing value in EV ownership. The legacy OEMs have a lot of baggage to contend with. Producing ICE and Electric models simultaneously, supporting a dealer network, and their falling sales numbers over the last few years indicate more trouble ahead. This is what Tony Seba calls the inverted S-curve that reflects the opposite side of the disruption when such changes happen. Same as when Ford invented the assembly line and disrupted the auto industry; what TV did to Radio; Cell phone to Land lines or iPhone to other mobiles, disruptive technology always rides an S-Curve into adoption that replaces the previous tech. We'll see how it goes for Tesla. So far, so good.

Tesla has plans for significantly improving the production of energy and is registered as an "energy producer" in several states (including Texas) and several nations. In fact, the Tesla Energy segment is expected to match or eclipse the Automotive part of the company in profits over the long term. Tesla is also active in partnerships with other producers in other states and nations and have been for years. Their Megapack battery storage product is revolutionizing the energy sector. Their Autobidder software product is helping maximize efficiency and reduce costs. Tesla just built a new factory for their Megapacks in Lathrop, CA. Their proven solution now has been installed all over the world and has reduced energy costs, improved reliability, and in some cases even paid for itself in a couple of years of savings over the costs of paying coal and gas "peaker plants" that have routinely charged exorbitant prices to customers. (Australia) Today, solar, wind, and battery production facilities cost less to build than conventional power plants cost to operate. Much less than to build a new coal, gas or nuke plant. A 100 square mile solar array could provide all the energy that the US needs. Tesla is pioneering a "solar roof" that can be installed instead of shingles on new and existing homes. The Tesla Powerwall storage product can keep a home running for days (if not 100% independent of external power) during outages. Once operational, the cost of electricity from Solar and Wind, stored in batteries, will be for all practical purposes free by comparison to existing energy sources. Here's a pretty good overview of the "disruptive" technologies currently converging that will lead to a paradigm shift that will affect not only energy, but transportation, and the economy in drastically positive ways. Try to imagine what the percentage of the energy component for nearly everything produced and sold might be. Consider the energy necessary to produce raw materials, ship, manufacture, package, ship again, advertise, administrate companies, and run facilities to sell products and services. Now, imagine if that energy cost was reduced by 98%. How would that change things? This is so significant it is staggeringly hard to imagine. In the coming decade or so the potential for positive change is astounding, and the ball is already rolling thanks to companies like Tesla. Tesla gets a lot of bad press because they are directly threatening Big Auto, Big Oil, Big Energy and other significant players with huge budgets for advertising and influencing the news. Tesla has never spent money on advertising, yet has grown at an unheard of rate of over 50% per year, for year after year after year and is now a Trillion dollar company in the league of Amazon, Google (Alphabet), and Apple. They are doing something right to have achieved this level of success on word of mouth advertising by their customers. Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world by 2025 or so. Don't bet against Elon.

Clearly, you know nothing about Tesla's plans for Lithium extraction from clay using salt water, a process which they are developing specifically to avoid the toxic mess other processes require. Then, there is their breakthrough battery manufacturing process that eliminates nasty pollutants by using a dry electrode that does not require baking the solvent out as part of manufacturing. This process will also reduce the footprint of the manufacturing facility by something like 80-90% for the same volume of production done by the dirtier legacy battery manufacturing process. Tesla's factories at Texas and Germany will be the first sites to have these battery manufacturing facilities for producing at scale and will be online this year. Google "Tesla Battery Day" for more detail. It is an eye-opener. Tesla's Mission Statement is "To accelerate the transition to sustainable energy." They are very likely the most Eco-conscious mega-cap company on the planet. Their long-term goal is to eventually reach a point where 100% recycling for all Lithium batteries is able to supply all future battery needs. Reaching this milestone will eliminate the need for mining of the raw materials. Their goal for achieving this is 2030. Tesla co-founder J.B. Straubel created a company that is focused on developing the recycling techniques to accomplish this and which is already delivering limited quantities of recycled materials to Tesla for battery manufacturing. Here's a link to an article about a recent CNN interview with Straubel.

Took some picks on a ride today. The air conditioning was working great. Got some Lemonade too

Spent a few hours yesterday playing with a new tool, Fiskar's Pick Mattock. Available in 5lb and 1.5lb versions. I got the 5. (probably need to add this to the Trail Building Tools thread) The design of this tool isolates the usual transfer of shock that tends to reverberate in the user's hands with pick use. They call the tech IsoCore, and it is available on several of their hand tools. Reviews by trail builders indicated how this design allows them to work longer on a trail without the fatigue usually associated with using a Pick/Mattock. After several hours of use, I concur! Anywho, I carved deep bench cuts into two of the more difficult climbing turns on Corkscrew and improved a couple of other off-camber sections. There was a couple riding out there, EE preriders, who made multiple passes while I was working, so I got to see the effect of my efforts first hand and garner feedback from them. I think these will help the section flow better and I spotted other improvements to add in the future.

There has been a berm outbreak at RHR. They are popping up randomly on several trails. The Excrutiation Exam riders will get to try them out this weekend.

Paul has rebuilt two bridges on Black Trak and flagged some future trail East of Karaway. I've been busy too, and flagged two short, new sections of trail and will begin cutting once this heat wave is past and the AC is back on outside for working comfortably. I hope to have one of these completed in time for the Excruciation Exam coming up soon. I know how much those folks want to suffer. 😏 Edit: MTBProject is being updated and now has the new loop. Some remnants showing lost or changed trail still remain and updates to that site will continue.