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mack_turtle

Tesla in Austin

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46 minutes ago, AustinBike said:

It is cheaper and only 15 minutes to downtown.

Their presence will change both of those things.

What obscure hour of the morning is Elon driving from his facility to downtown? Or is he taking a helicopter? is that the assumption he has that the tunnels will make it that fast? maybe he already built that tunnel and just hasn't told us yet?

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Smoke and mirrors IMO.  Battery production is not exactly clean and CA would be up his ass. TX’s TCEQ is a fuckin joke. Chartering in Texas and battling in TX courts vs CA courts is the more likely endgame. A few extra zeros on CA R&D payroll vs fewer halts in production aka revenue stream in TX, which is the likely scenario?

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It's a world of predatory capitalism based solely on extraction. Like a parasite.

They will go where they can extract the most wealth and resources, and then move on to the next place that will pull their pants down for them. Lube up, I suggest starting with two fingers. 

Also, getting sick of the whole "electric cars are going to save us" cult.  One doesn't need to travel any further than the western US to see the damage from mining and the extraction and processing of heavy metals is having on our environment. There are brand new neighborhoods in salt lake built on mining tailings where no gardens are allowed. On a global scale these mines are in 3rd world hotspots and are unsafe for the citizens and industry workers.

I'm fine with them coming to Austin and raising the value of my home 300k so I can GTFO. Don't fool yourself into thinking there's any nobility with these autistic tyrants. 

Rant/off

 

 

Edited by ATXZJ
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Clearly, you know nothing about Tesla's plans for Lithium extraction from clay using salt water, a process which they are developing specifically to avoid the toxic mess other processes require.

Then, there is their breakthrough battery manufacturing process that eliminates nasty pollutants by using a dry electrode that does not require baking the solvent out as part of manufacturing. This process will also reduce the footprint of the manufacturing facility by something like 80-90% for the same volume of production done by the dirtier legacy battery manufacturing process. Tesla's factories at Texas and Germany will be the first sites to have these battery manufacturing facilities for producing at scale and will be online this year.

Google "Tesla Battery Day" for more detail. It is an eye-opener.

Tesla's Mission Statement is "To accelerate the transition to sustainable energy." They are very likely the most Eco-conscious mega-cap company on the planet.

Their long-term goal is to eventually reach a point where 100% recycling for all Lithium batteries is able to supply all future battery needs. Reaching this milestone will eliminate the need for mining of the raw materials. Their goal for achieving this is 2030.

Tesla co-founder J.B. Straubel created a company that is focused on developing the recycling techniques to accomplish this and which is already delivering limited quantities of recycled materials to Tesla for battery manufacturing. Here's a link to an article about a recent CNN interview with Straubel.

Edited by Ridenfool
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you are right. I'm no battery expert.

Like everything else when it comes to tech solving the worlds problems, I'll believe it when I see it. Musk is an autistic hype machine with a history of over promising.

It's also not like the electricity used to charge these batteries is created by magical fairies.

Edited by ATXZJ
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Tesla has plans for significantly improving the production of energy and is registered as an "energy producer" in several states (including Texas) and several nations. In fact, the Tesla Energy segment is expected to match or eclipse the Automotive part of the company in profits over the long term.

Tesla is also active in partnerships with other producers in other states and nations and have been for years. Their Megapack battery storage product is revolutionizing the energy sector. Their Autobidder software product is helping maximize efficiency and reduce costs.

Tesla just built a new factory for their Megapacks in Lathrop, CA. Their proven solution now has been installed all over the world and has reduced energy costs, improved reliability, and in some cases even paid for itself in a couple of years of savings over the costs of paying coal and gas "peaker plants" that have routinely charged exorbitant prices to customers. (Australia)

Today, solar, wind, and battery production facilities cost less to build than conventional power plants cost to operate. Much less than to build a new coal, gas or nuke plant. A 100 square mile solar array could provide all the energy that the US needs. Tesla is pioneering a "solar roof" that can be installed instead of shingles on new and existing homes. The Tesla Powerwall storage product can keep a home running for days (if not 100% independent of external power) during outages. 

Once operational, the cost of electricity from Solar and Wind, stored in batteries, will be for all practical purposes free by comparison to existing energy sources.

Here's a pretty good overview of the "disruptive" technologies currently converging that will lead to a paradigm shift that will affect not only energy, but transportation, and the economy in drastically positive ways.

 

Try to imagine what the percentage of the energy component for nearly everything produced and sold might be. Consider the energy necessary to produce raw materials, ship, manufacture, package, ship again, advertise, administrate companies, and run facilities to sell products and services.

Now, imagine if that energy cost was reduced by 98%. How would that change things? This is so significant it is staggeringly hard to imagine.

In the coming decade or so the potential for positive change is astounding, and the ball is already rolling thanks to companies like Tesla.

Tesla gets a lot of bad press because they are directly threatening Big Auto, Big Oil, Big Energy and other significant players with huge budgets for advertising and influencing the news.

Tesla has never spent money on advertising, yet has grown at an unheard of rate of over 50% per year, for year after year after year and is now a Trillion dollar company in the league of Amazon, Google (Alphabet), and Apple. They are doing something right to have achieved this level of success on word of mouth advertising by their customers. Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world by 2025 or so.

Don't bet against Elon.

Edited by Ridenfool
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I'll bet against Elon most of the time. He is not a dumb man but he constantly overplays his hand.

Tesla made most of their profits over their existence selling offsets and energy credits, not selling cars. The "can't do anything wrong market leader" really was the first company to establish a beachhead without having any true competition because the rest of the companies had an ICE technology to contend with. 

The next 5 years will show the gap closing and the EV market making a dramatic change. Tesla does not have the scale that the other guys do. Will be interesting.

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AB, you know I'm a betting man. Some day I'll get that taco from you for the last bet we made on gold years ago.

You need to look at Tesla's numbers. Their Earnings Call for Q4 2021 is coming up in two weeks. It should be amazing based upon the preliminary reports of automotive production and deliveries for 2021.

Bottom line, they are not growing the company at a rate of over 50%/year based only upon the energy credits other OEMs have to purchase to avoid fines due to regulations in the US, EU, etc. Granted, those credits were responsible for the ink turning from red to black in the quarterly reports sooner than Tesla would have done without them. Those credits in no way affected Elon's original plan for 50% annual growth through 2030 that was presented back in 2014 (if memory serves me) and has run true to date. It would have happened with or without the credits. They were gravy. Now, they are insignificant.

I sincerely hope that GM, Ford, etc. can make the transition. Battery supply is the limiting factor and they are between five and ten years behind in securing the batteries they will require in order to ramp EV production. Tesla was just shy of 1 million vehicles produced in 2021. Compare that to Ford and GM's EV production numbers to get a better feel for how they are doing.

Tesla's goal is to produce 20 million vehicles annually by 2030. This, in an auto market that is currently about 100 million sales a year, globally. There need to be many more EV manufacturers, as more buyers are seeing value in EV ownership. The legacy OEMs have a lot of baggage to contend with. Producing ICE and Electric models simultaneously, supporting a dealer network, and their falling sales numbers over the last few years indicate more trouble ahead. This is what Tony Seba calls the inverted S-curve that reflects the opposite side of the disruption when such changes happen. Same as when Ford invented the assembly line and disrupted the auto industry; what TV did to Radio; Cell phone to Land lines or iPhone to other mobiles, disruptive technology always rides an S-Curve into adoption that replaces the previous tech.

We'll see how it goes for Tesla. So far, so good.

 

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I said profits not revenue. Over time. My position stands.

Also, if you still think that gold was a better investment, let's take a look at gold vs. the S&P.

From 2014 to 2021 gold is up ~42%. That is pretty impressive, a nice place to put your money.

Except for the same time period, the S&P500 is up ~130%. That is essentially a 3X better performance. And I seem to recall you saying to gold was a long-term play, so over the long term, it has done substantially worse than the general stock market.

Remember to pick up some habanero salsa when you get my tacos.

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40 minutes ago, AustinBike said:

I said profits not revenue. Over time. My position stands.

Also, if you still think that gold was a better investment, let's take a look at gold vs. the S&P.

From 2014 to 2021 gold is up ~42%. That is pretty impressive, a nice place to put your money.

Except for the same time period, the S&P500 is up ~130%. That is essentially a 3X better performance. And I seem to recall you saying to gold was a long-term play, so over the long term, it has done substantially worse than the general stock market.

Remember to pick up some habanero salsa when you get my tacos.

The bet was based upon what the gold price would do over the following twelve months. I said it would go up, you said it wouldn't. The price rose. 'Nuff said.

You owe me 🌮🌮.  Yes, Habanero sauce would be good with those. 😋

 

As for Tesla performance as a company ...

In part due to some of the points you made back then I developed more interest in the market. Over a period from late 2019 to mid 2020 the metals were sold at their peak and TSLA shares were purchased. Thanks for your part in steering my focus in this direction. TSLA is up 16X (1600%) since November of 2019 and joined the S&P 100 and 500 in late 2020, and has since been contributing to S&P growth.

This is what that meteoric rise looks like as a chart.

image.thumb.png.f97ecd9d4026466d539cfcf5478fff3c.png

There is a saying on Wall Street, "The trend is your friend" which is well illustrated here.

 

As for profits...

Here's a link to MacroTrends TSLA page, and their Gross Profits chart, below.

image.thumb.png.e2db9bd63e790b3e417907e2c06647fe.png

Here's a link to Tesla's published quarterly reports for a deep dive on any of the particulars.

 

Keep in mind how the remarkable profits over the past few years were achieved while Tesla designed and constructed three gigantic production facilities at locations in China, Germany, and Texas, and:

  • doubled the size of their Supercharger network
  • grew their Service Centers by 34%
  • expanded their Energy business
  • built their Dojo A.I. learning computer
  • pioneered breakthrough battery manufacturing (4680, Dry Electrode process, Lithium extraction process, etc.)
  • and essentially piled all they could into growing the business and still have nearly $20B in the bank for future growth

In addition, Tesla:

  • designed the Cybertruck (slated for production in 2022)
  • is delivering 15 Tesla Semis to Pepsico this month
  • grew production and deliveries at greater than 50% per year, repeatedly
  • received orders from Hertz for 100K vehicles at list pricing to be added to their rental fleet
  • achieved all of this while being the most shorted and most optioned stock in market history (overcame a LOT of resistance)

Tesla has for years also been the focus of media FUD reporting (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) where trivial events are sensationalized about Tesla in comparison to identical events for other OEMs being played down. Fortunately, the tide seems to be turning on that remarkable campaign to malign the marque.

To me, Tesla remains a golden opportunity for years to come. Granted, I agree with you about how the returns are better than those for metals.

 

This in no way changes how our bet played out over that year. 😁

 

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The battery was invented 220 years ago. It's not like Tesla is doing anything new.

Anyone that rich, with that much influence over society, is no friend of the people.

The green washing over electric cars is just ridiculous.

Edited by ATXZJ
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Batteries today are evolving at a crazy pace.  The battery from 220 years ago is nowhere near what we have today.   I was going to link you to a Nova Science Now "The Search for the Super Battery" but it's not available locally online. If you can find it in your streaming usual places, watch it.  Dr. Goodenough from UT is in it (99 years old and still at it). The guy is cool.

I've bought and sold Tesla stock in the last few years.  I still have a few shares but I mostly sold.  Though the company's products are excellent and they are selling well, I don't see the share price reflect even future earnings growth.  It seems irrational...but I'm also not going to short it (some of those people are taking it in the shorts!)

As to the products themselves, I've started shopping for cars and I'm comparing EVs, from a low end Leaf to an Audi etron and everything in between (including a Rivian truck or even dreaming of a Canoo...what my 12yo me would have thought trucks would like like in 2022).  When you start comparing the features and the performance for the money, the old school car companies are nowhere close.  Maybe in 5 years they catch up, but right now, it's not even close as far as I'm concerned.  The Leaf is criticized for the lower range, but it's cheap and it's what most of us need for in the city.


Forget the green washing if you need to, but I'm ready for no ICE sensors, relays, solenoids, hoses, fragile vaccum lines, oils, fluids, etc (currently diagnosing misfire and low HPFP pressure code in my MS3) as a bonus you get some pretty nice performance. 

Sure long road trips will not be the same, but that's such a small percentage of what most cars are used for these days.  In fact, my wife and I are thinking of downsizing to one car for us since we both mostly WFH, and my job is 4.25 miles away.  Our cars mostly sit in a driveway or parking spot for 23.5 hours a day depreciating, and when they're used, a 2000kg vehicle is used to mostly move <100kg person/cargo for 90% of its life.  Car ownership is overall quite ridiculous so to focus on green washing or whatever is...meh...

 

@Ridenfool how about a Canoo as the next Ridefnfool-mobile?  They look pretty freaking cool!

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That Canoo is pretty cool.

What most people don't realize about this new crop of EVs is how the Green aspect is no longer the strongest selling point.

They are higher performance while also being safer, have significantly lower operating costs while also being more reliable, require almost zero periodic maintenance, are designed to last much longer than ICE vehicles, and in the not too distant future will cost less to purchase. They already cost less over the life of the vehicle.

Oh, and yeah, they'll help save the planet too. If that is important to a buyer.

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39 minutes ago, AntonioGG said:

Batteries today are evolving at a crazy pace.  The battery from 220 years ago is nowhere near what we have today.   I was going to link you to a Nova Science Now "The Search for the Super Battery" but it's not available locally online. If you can find it in your streaming usual places, watch it.  Dr. Goodenough from UT is in it (99 years old and still at it). The guy is cool.

I've bought and sold Tesla stock in the last few years.  I still have a few shares but I mostly sold.  Though the company's products are excellent and they are selling well, I don't see the share price reflect even future earnings growth.  It seems irrational...but I'm also not going to short it (some of those people are taking it in the shorts!)

As to the products themselves, I've started shopping for cars and I'm comparing EVs, from a low end Leaf to an Audi etron and everything in between (including a Rivian truck or even dreaming of a Canoo...what my 12yo me would have thought trucks would like like in 2022).  When you start comparing the features and the performance for the money, the old school car companies are nowhere close.  Maybe in 5 years they catch up, but right now, it's not even close as far as I'm concerned.  The Leaf is criticized for the lower range, but it's cheap and it's what most of us need for in the city.


Forget the green washing if you need to, but I'm ready for no ICE sensors, relays, solenoids, hoses, fragile vaccum lines, oils, fluids, etc (currently diagnosing misfire and low HPFP pressure code in my MS3) as a bonus you get some pretty nice performance. 

Sure long road trips will not be the same, but that's such a small percentage of what most cars are used for these days.  In fact, my wife and I are thinking of downsizing to one car for us since we both mostly WFH, and my job is 4.25 miles away.  Our cars mostly sit in a driveway or parking spot for 23.5 hours a day depreciating, and when they're used, a 2000kg vehicle is used to mostly move <100kg person/cargo for 90% of its life.  Car ownership is overall quite ridiculous so to focus on green washing or whatever is...meh...

 

@Ridenfool how about a Canoo as the next Ridefnfool-mobile?  They look pretty freaking cool!

As you and i have shared, I'm an old car guy. 30 years in the business. I hate putting gas in and dealing with maintenance but im also a 48 y/o curmudgeon 😁

The battery comment is aimed at the fact that he really doesn't invent anything.  Maybe paypal? Ill ride the elon/austin hype train through this summer and using it to get the most for my house. 

25 minutes ago, Ridenfool said:

That Canoo is pretty cool.

What most people don't realize about this new crop of EVs is how the Green aspect is no longer the strongest selling point.

They are higher performance while also being safer, have significantly lower operating costs while also being more reliable, require almost zero periodic maintenance, are designed to last much longer than ICE vehicles, and in the not too distant future will cost less to purchase. They already cost less over the life of the vehicle.

Oh, and yeah, they'll help save the planet too. If that is important to a buyer.

The EVs were promised to be better for the environment and now just being marketed as hip and cool. Basically they are the "it" brand millennials and zoomers cling to just like their boomer parents did with BMW. 

Reconcile Tesla opening a showroom in Xinjiang on new years and getting cozy with the CCP. All the while expecting fat government contracts from taxpayers in the usa.  Guy is your typical unlikeable Boo Radley billionaire just like the rest of the jeffs, bills, marks, and other four letter word tyrants. Hard pass.

Sacred cows make the best hamburger.

Edited by ATXZJ
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13 hours ago, AntonioGG said:

Sure long road trips will not be the same, but that's such a small percentage of what most cars are used for these days.

Yeah, I think all the people that bitch about EV range re: road trips are 100% wrong.

Why are you buying a car that you spend tons on in gas and maintenance just so that once a year you *might* want to take a road trip.

Buy for the 99.9% of your trips that are under 10 miles and for the one or two times a year that you need a long range car, freakin' rent the car. You get a relatively new car, with nationwide roadside assistance and if there are any problems on the trip they'll swap you out with a new one. 

The range argument is probably the stupidest argument that I have ever heard. The reality is that there is a very, very small part of the market that drives, consistently, more than 300 miles a day. Very small. 

BMW was the smartest when they started selling EVs with the option to rent a gas BMW for the weekend if you ever needed it. I'm going to bet that all of these dealers figure this out soon. They already have a fleet of loaner cars for repairs.....

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One could argue that if you're driving under 10 miles a day, do you even need a car?

I own a truck and usually drive about 20k a year. We also take quite a few MTB road trips out of state in it. The last power crisis only solidified my decision to stay on the smack.

Before the Rona, my wife commuted about 15 miles a day through the i-35 hellscape. Her parking garage at the moody had charging stations so we thought why not go electric.We were trying to buy a certified used Tesla but the dealers inability to guarantee battery range was a deal breaker for us. We were seeing 2-3 y/o Teslas that were getting 60-70% of their advertised range and the dealers were saying that fell within guidelines. For $50k plus, that was unacceptable. We bought a new hybrid instead.

IMHO, PHEVs are the best solution to the short commute situation. 

We're eyeing the new Subaru Crosstrek PHEV.

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I drive 3-4K a year and bike 5-6. I would gladly become a 1 car household but the wife disagrees with me. It is mostly a convenience thing and not needing to plan around car use. We tend to both need it around the same time of day when I do drive.

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I like EVs. they are the future. Tesla is doing a lot of cool things to bring technology to us. but can y'all Elon fanbois dial back the messianic buttkissing? it's really hard to welcome change when so many of its proponents are weirdly obsessed with it. everything sounds good until you suspect that the proponents are really evangelists in a cult.

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45 minutes ago, AustinBike said:

I drive 3-4K a year and bike 5-6. I would gladly become a 1 car household but the wife disagrees with me. It is mostly a convenience thing and not needing to plan around car use. We tend to both need it around the same time of day when I do drive.

The Robotaxi is something Tesla hopes to bring as an option once they get the A.I. for their FSD (Full Self Driving software) polished. This would be a driverless car that can be summoned via a phone app.

Cost of the service is expected to be in the <$0.25 per mile range and would provide the convenience of a private car without ownership/insurance/storage/upkeep hassles, and avoiding the "people" factor of using Uber/Lyft/Public Transit.

FSD is at version 11 and the thousands of Beta testers along with the developers are whittling away at the march of 9s (99.999999... = higher safety rating) with a goal of reaching FSD being 10 times safer than human operation. This is likely still a couple of years out, and will revolutionize transportation options for many people who are unable to drive, or prefer to avoid ownership of a vehicle.

 

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5 minutes ago, mack_turtle said:

I like EVs. they are the future. Tesla is doing a lot of cool things to bring technology to us. but can y'all Elon fanbois dial back the messianic buttkissing? it's really hard to welcome change when so many of its proponents are weirdly obsessed with it. everything sounds good until you suspect that the proponents are really evangelists in a cult.

You are right. I am an Elon fanbois and registered cult member. 😁 I get it that the enthusiasm pouring from me and others of my ilk can be a bit overwhelming. I apologize for my part in that.

Thing is, anyone who actually looks into Tesla and TSLA stock in any depth will find the fandom substantiated by the vision and performance delivered to date, as well as the prospects of what is on the horizon.

Despite Elon's sometimes over-optimistic timelines, the fact remains that eventually he has consistently delivered on what was promised. Shouldn't that count for something?

I never expected to live during a time when someone with Di Vinci's vision for the future, and Thomas Edison and Nicola Tesla's problem solving skills would be doing their magic in my backyard. Being a lifelong science fiction fan, it is dream come true to live in a world where what was once fantasy becomes a part of every day life on a regular basis thanks solely to a real-life Tony Stark being among us.

Who else:

  • is currently reusing rockets and bringing the cost of access to space down to unprecedented levels (SpaceX);
  • brought affordable internet access to every square mile of the planet surface (Starlink);
  • has demonstrated to the auto industry how they must migrate to electric or go bankrupt (Tesla);
  • created energy solutions that significantly reduce the costs of electricity and improve grid reliability (Tesla);
  • has helped pioneer medical implants to address a wide variety of brain/nervous system issues (Neurolink);
  • deployed a tunneling machine that is orders of magnitude faster than previous efforts with myriad applications for freight and people transport and then built those tunnels (Boring Co.)

These things are no longer the dreams of science fiction writers. They each exist, now, because of Elon Musk.

The fact that anyone can also invest in TSLA with a high potential of huge annual gains continuing through the end of the decade doesn't suck either. As long as you don't mind a roller coaster ride to the top. The motto of the long-term TSLA investors is HODL (Hold On for Dear Life).

Heck, there are people working on the assembly line at Tesla's Fremont, CA facility who have become millionaires through the stock option plan, and, keep working at Tesla because they love the culture of the workplace. (give or take the one crazy who murdered a co-worker recently)

Thanks to Elon, I get to build trails and ride all I want to. If this alone isn't reason enough for obsession I don't know what else would be.

Here's some Kool-aid 🥤, try it, you'll like it.  😏

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I worked a lot with people doing AI and full self driving. The challenges are less technical and more ethical. 
 

Additionally FSD is not safer. There are two things that make it more dangerous, real drivers and standards. 
 

FSD is safer if 100% of the cars have FSD. But as long as there is some number of real drivers it is actually more dangerous because you can’t model real drivers, you can only model *most* drivers and that uncertainty causes huge latency and decision making problems. 

The other thing is standards. The only way FSD works is if there is a standard that all companies adhere to and all systems are interconnected into. Elon is not gonna give up his Crown Jewels, the only way it would ever work is if the government ran it. Which will never happen. Which is why we will never see your autonomous taxi or true FSD. It is not the technology it is the environment. We still have cars running on lead fuel and cars without seatbelts. 

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@Ridenfool I was with you until the tunnel stuff.  That is the biggest BS I've ever seen.  TBMs have been around for a long time.  The Chunnel was dug using those.  WTP#4 tunnel goes under my house and was dug with a TBM (I could hear it and so could one of my dogs for a few months!).  Subways have been around forever.  The vision of an evacuated tunnel and super high speeds was cool.  The vision of a single file tunnel with Teslas in it is idiotic.  The vision of a tunnel in south Florida is way beyond ridiculous.

As far as EVs, all of you mentioning how short commutes means we don't need that range, I 100% agree and as I mentioned is why I think we may go with one new EV and I'll get an ebike for myself to commute.  But the reality, I'm also a gearhead.  I love cars, etc.  I would love to have a lightweight EV that's short range but high performance.  I.e. I'd be cool with 0-60 in the 3 second range but <100 miles range.   I don't want to have 350 miles of range just sitting there unused.

One of the really cool cars I'm looking at is a micro car (like a Kei car).  You buy a base battery size (8kWh) and if you want to go on a longer trip, you can rent the packs up to 24kWh total.  It's a truck/van and it's modular and I think it's super-cool looking.  It will be cheap.  I doubt it will come to the US.

This would be the perfect city vehicle and on occasion for camping trips, etc.

https://electricbrands.de/en/myxbus/

 

@ATXZJ 100% agree that for most right now and in Texas with so much of our electricity still being dirty, a plug-in hybrid makes the most sense.  you minimize the battery and those metals needed for them, and you can 99% eliminate gas use, but still have the gas as a backup.  A friend at work has an OG Volt and loves it.  I really wanted to get one.  I'm still out-of-love with ICE b/c of the maintenance.  Maybe I need to get my car fixed by a mechanic instead of by me and wait a while before I make a decision.  I also think changing the clutch on a FWD Turbo car broke me.  The $1700 now seems cheap!

As far as winter storm and disasters, I'm actually thinking of taking the plunge into solar and battery backup.  I know some neighbor/friends just did this specifically b/c of the winter storm.  Distributed solar makes sense to me.

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