The Second Sign of the Apocalypse

[AntonioGG]

You guys are silly arguing over whose industry has a better/worse record of pollution.  All industry is horrible.  Nuclear has a bad history too (Uranium tailings superfund site in Moab leaching into the CO river for example, all the nasty mines with colorful pools around Leadville and surrounding areas, etc.) but any mining (for any metal), any extraction, and any production has horrible records period.  Plastic industry uses oil AND produces tons of waste.  Electronics industry also produces tons of waste.  Humans are the worst though.  Individually we suck for our own convenience. 

As far as EVs being practical, our family has 3 (different vendors), and we share a single level 2 charger with no issues.  We have also done long trips (I'd only pick 1 of the 3 for long trips, maybe 2).  I've had it add 1hr per 500 miles, and that's if I compare to my youthful self cannonball style minimal stops (fuel stops = bathroom stops = snack stops (diet coke and snickers, minimizing fluid and food intake).  The real life is that with a wife and a dog and/or kids, you are stopping way more often than the 400miles most fuel tanks will give you.  The Huracan is a bad example btw, with 21.1 gallon tank 18mpg EPA legal speeds (forget it if you're going cannonball speeds).  Using ABRP I calculate 50.5 hours NYC to LA for the EV including stops.  The Huracan will take 42 hours at legal speeds + 8 fuel stops (calculating 1.1 gallon reserve so real 20gal capacity which is generous...) at 10min each (per your numbers) for 43.33 hours.  So over 2800 miles the EV adds 7 hours in cannonball mode. for 2800 miles and essentially 2 days driving   Our driving is 95% city, so it seems silly to burden my choice of cars with something that may happen 5 times a year (for myself, those that are doing the van life or the traveling life of course will need fuel vehicles).  Did you know that the most efficient/quick method of long travel on an EV requires short and frequent stops to get the highest rate of charge (up to 1400mi/hr).  Most non/anti-EV people think you must completely discharge the battery then fully charge it to continue.  The last 20% of charge takes too long, so you end to operate 20-80% which is fairly fast charging.

Micro-fusion reactors may be the interim answer if we can solve the mining and disposal issue.  Fussion would be the ultimate answer.

[Shinerider]

Way too many calculations to pay attention😁

[Ridenfool]

27 minutes ago, AntonioGG said:

You guys are silly arguing over whose industry has a better/worse record of pollution. 

 

 

My take is that fossil/synthetic/hydrogen (from fossil) and nuclear all have long-term consequences to deal with.

Fossil fuel requires companies to keep drilling to keep going. Add in the destructive nature of fracking, toxic by-products going into the air during processing and use, and the wasted energy required to transport and convert crude into useful products, then to deliver, store, and dispense them makes the overall energy efficiency very low.

Add to this how the engines in vehicles are very low efficiency as well, losing most of the combustion energy as heat, even the best ones, It quickly becomes a real head-scratcher once the electric alternative is measured beside what we have been doing for the past century.

Nuclear is cleaner than fossil fuels, but costs to build and maintain the facility is high and ongoing. Then, there is the waste disposal issue. How does it compare to alternatives?

 

Instead, produce a solar panel and a battery, put the panel in direct sunlight, walk away. The panel just keeps turning an abundance of sunlight into very, very inexpensive electricity for decades. Which can be stored in the battery until needed.

This energy can then be transferred into an electric car's battery with very little energy loss in the process. It can then power a car designed with fewer moving parts to fail, nearly zero maintenance by comparison, and it offers much better performance without putting toxic gasses into the air while in use.

Sure, there will be mining required to transition to renewable energy. But, unlike with fossil and nuclear fuels, once the majority of Earth's needs are met by solar/battery installations, the mining tapers off. The batteries in use have long lifespans and when they are no longer functional, they are 98% recyclable into new batteries.

Win, win, win.

[ATXZJ]

3 hours ago, AntonioGG said:

 So over 2800 miles the EV adds 7 hours in cannonball mode. for 2800 miles and essentially 2 days driving  

@Ridenfool Not too long ago I was told we were heading into a new ice age by the same people leading us down the renewable path. To say I lack confidence in these experts, would be an understatement. When the earth has had enough of us, it will wipe the surface clean just like it has time after time. There's nothing anyone can do to change that.

In the interim, EVs and batteries consume raw materials, require fossil fuels to be produced and to be shipped from China. Aren't they our enemy? That's what I'm told at least. The two biggest fossil fuel carbon polluters are ships and planes. Outside of nuclear in ships, there's no going low carbon with those modes of transport. My 15y/o tacoma has long paid for itself in carbon compared to the person that gets a new EV every three years. Hell, if ONE elite skips ONE private plane ride, my toyota is good on carbon for the rest of my life. Seeing the rich flying in coach sounds like a good compromise to me. 

@AntonioGG That was the point of using a 15mpg car vs electric. Use a civic for that calculation and the driver will be on the beach drinking margaritas damn near before the EV gets out CST. For a vast majority, time is too valuable to plan trips around waiting for a charger. I was on board with using EVs for cities but the EV debacle in Chicago last winter was enough for me to say I'm never putting my wife in one. Granted, we also do big miles compared to most people because I love the road almost as much as I hate the airlines.

Outside of toyota, If the auto industry had half a brain, they would have stuck with hybrids, particularly plug-in hybrid cars, before rushing out unproven EVs. It would seem the government (taxpayer) subsidies were too good to resist.  We could also put so many more people in hybrids and PHEVs with the heavy battery material it would take to make EVs. That would actually do something to reduce fossil fuel consumption. We currently have a hybrid and will be replacing it with a plug in hybrid. She does not want to sit and charge the car by herself in the middle of nowhere.

Totally agree with you on plastic. That IMHO is the real issue. All of this renewable waste will end up in some 3rd world country or in the ocean just like our plastic recycling we sort, and drag out to the curb like morons every week. The 230 fold increase in plastic waste in 70 years is what will doom us. Fake economies are propped up by excess consumption and the dominant empires require it to keep the gears turning and the pockets full.

Renewables are deckchairs on the titanic in comparison.  

 

Edited March 21 by ATXZJ

[Ridenfool]

Just now, ATXZJ said:

@Ridenfool Not too long ago I was told we were heading into a new ice age by the same people leading us down the renewable path. To say I lack confidence in these experts, would be an understatement. When the earth has had enough of us, it will wipe the surface clean just like it has time after time. There's nothing anyone can do to change that.

 

Well, it has always been popular among some people to believe in their feelings on a subject rather than employing the scientific method to verify.

Best wishes for you in this struggle against the tide of actuality while facing the reality of an outcome unmoved by an emotional agenda.

[ATXZJ]

1 hour ago, Ridenfool said:

 

Well, it has always been popular among some people to believe in their feelings on a subject rather than employing the scientific method to verify.

Best wishes for you in this struggle against the tide of actuality while facing the reality of an outcome unmoved by an emotional agenda.

whut?

You could also live in the fantasyland that our tech overlords will provide us with magic solar panels, wind turbines and batteries that will get us out of the mess the ruling class (same people pushing green) has gotten us into. Also, they will do so for a healthy profit to the bottom line. There is no desire to make real change from above because it suits them. Disaster capitalism I believe they call it. We can all argue and toil about renewables while our resources are stolen from us and poisoned. Lastly, you never responded to the issue of ships and planes. 

I agree like coal, fossil fuels as we know it have run their course. I don't enjoy changing oil and pumping gas one bit. I also don't think EVs are the answer. I've also been around long enough to recognize this renewable push is a distraction and a grift. You should watch that Michael Moore documentary. He got slapped on the dick and ostracized for actually exploring the renewable movement. 

It's become a religion in itself. 

 

Edited March 21 by ATXZJ

[Ridenfool]

33 minutes ago, ATXZJ said:

whut?

You could also live in the fantasyland that our tech overlords will provide with magic solar panels, wind turbines and batteries that will get us out of the mess the ruling class (same people pushing green) has gotten us into. Also, they will do so for a healthy profit to the bottom line. There is no desire to make real change from above because it suits them. Disaster capitalism I believe they call it. We can all argue and toil about renewables while our resources are stolen from us and poisoned.

I agree fossil fuels have run their course. I don't enjoy changing oil and pumping gas one bit. I've also been around long enough to recognize this renewable push is a distraction and a grift. You should watch that Michael Moore documentary. He got slapped on the dick and ostracized for actually exploring the renewable movement. 

It's become a religion in itself. 

 

 

If you must go on. Consider how nothing you have presented has in any way factually addressed anything I have presented.

You have an opinion about the future, laced heavily with what you perceive as some sort of class war between yourself and the wealthy, the tech overlords, and other imaginary foes which must keep you up at night. None of which appears to be supported by anything more significant than headlines in the National Enquirer.

I have presented links to supporting evidence about several things that have already happened and which exist now. They can be measured and evaluated in order to compare to the legacy alternatives which they are shown to be replacing at an ever-increasing rate.

 

We are in a time of technological change, and have been for going on two hundred years. It is, and always has been, accelerating, at an exponential rate.

Resistance is futile, you will be assimilated. 🤖

 

 

Edited March 21 by Ridenfool

[RedRider3141]

3 hours ago, Ridenfool said:

Regarding hail and solar panels. I was just reading about how it has been found recently that Solar panels oriented vertically, rather than horizontally, with panels facing both East and West actually produce more power than do those facing skyward and South. (Northern Hemisphere perspective)

Hail don't care. 

[Ridenfool]

The Hail you say? 😁

[ATXZJ]

2 minutes ago, RedRider3141 said:

Hail don't care. 

As someone who works in the hail repair industry I totally agree. Nature is metal🤘

[ATXZJ]

30 minutes ago, Ridenfool said:

 

If you must go on. Consider how nothing you have presented has in any way factually addressed anything I have presented.

You have an opinion about the future, laced heavily with what you perceive as some sort of class war between yourself and the wealthy, the tech overlords, and other imaginary foes which must keep you up at night. None of which appears to be supported by anything more significant than headlines in the National Enquirer.

I have presented links to supporting evidence about several things that have already happened and which exist now. They can be measured and evaluated in order to compare to the legacy alternatives which they are shown to be replacing at an ever-increasing rate.

 

We are in a time of technological change, and have been for going on two hundred years. It is, and always has been, accelerating, at an exponential rate.

Resistance is futile, you will be assimilated. 🤖

 

 

Like a said. A religion 

Here are a few articles from subsidiaries of the national enquirer

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-private-jets-carbon-emissions-tax/

https://www.theguardian.com/global/2018/oct/04/ontario-six-nations-nestle-running-water

https://hbr.org/2021/06/the-dark-side-of-solar-power

 

 

Again. Ships and planes?

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-12.0/centery:25.0/zoom:4

https://www.flightradar24.com/31.78,-106.49/6

Hold on while I rush out and by and electric car and stove to save the planet. Both of which are charged by electricity created by natural gas. 

You are being used

 

Edited March 21 by ATXZJ

[Ridenfool]

38 minutes ago, ATXZJ said:

Like a said. A religion 

Here are a few articles from subsidiaries of the national enquirer

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-private-jets-carbon-emissions-tax/

https://www.theguardian.com/global/2018/oct/04/ontario-six-nations-nestle-running-water

https://hbr.org/2021/06/the-dark-side-of-solar-power

You are being used.

 

Again. Ships and planes?

 

I've always suspected there was a connection between those entities and the Enquirer. I just figured it was the advertisers they shared influencing their hit-pieces. I had no idea they were subsidiaries. 😁 

Thanks for the info. I'll avoid them in the future. /s

 

Edit: For the sake of clarity, the "/s" indicates sarcasm.

Oh, and none of what you have presented has anything to do with what I have presented. You seem to think I am some sort of champion for the environmentalist movement, or global worming (those poor worms), or some other faction that gets stirred up over their own virtue signalling. That isn't the case at all.

I'm a geek that enjoys understanding technology and watching as the application of it leads to positive changes for the world we live in.

Edited March 21 by Ridenfool

[Taco Man]

I went to Korea and toured the LG Solar Plant there, they have a 'gun' that launches frozen ice balls (hail) at the panels simulating..... Storms in TX to test their durability.

So a very high quality LG is designed for hail, a medium quality Polycrystalline probably cant take it.

[Taco Man]

1 minute ago, Taco Man said:

I went to Korea and toured the LG Solar Plant there, they have a 'gun' that launches frozen ice balls (hail) at the panels simulating..... Storms in TX to test their durability.

So a very high quality LG is designed for hail, a medium quality Polycrystalline probably cant take it.

Interesting... LG decided to get out the business, too many escalating costs.

[RedRider3141]

1 hour ago, Taco Man said:

I went to Korea and toured the LG Solar Plant there, they have a 'gun' that launches frozen ice balls (hail) at the panels simulating..... Storms in TX to test their durability.

So a very high quality LG is designed for hail, a medium quality Polycrystalline probably cant take it.

I don't know about the LG solar Panels but a neighbor/ friend recently installed the "indestructible" Tesla Solar Roof 1 month before our last hail storm that peppered my roof and chimney and the Tesla Roof was completely destroyed. 

Yes...

1 hour ago, ATXZJ said:

Nature is metal🤘

[RedRider3141]

My wife's hand for comparison. 

Edited March 21 by RedRider3141

[ATXZJ]

1 hour ago, RedRider3141 said:

My wife's hand for comparison. 

I can only imagine what homeowners insurance is, when they find out you have Tesla solar panels.

[Chief]

@14:49 is the real reason our government wants us in EV's.

Lord Elon himself explaining that totally solar cars are not possible.

The whole green movement is just another grift being propped up by lobbyists to extract our money. Is climate change real? absolutely. Do we have an impact on climate change? yes. The real question is how big of an impact? how is it measured? All we see are people crying we need to do something about climate change right now! The earth has been around for 4.5 billion years the Industrial Revolution began 260 years ago, to believe we've had a significant enough impact to cause significant climate change in that amount of time seams ridiculous and most likely is. Currently the earth is greener than it has been and even greener than it was 20 years ago which is a good thing more trees more O2, trees are the natural air scrubbers of the planet yet we continually cut trees down for the sake of progress and money. Like @ATXZJ mentioned the earth has gone through many ice ages and many warm periods and will continue to so totally disregarding us. Every so often the earth turns into a blender resetting itself and eliminating most of the life on the planet in the process, we have no power or control over any of it. And if we did we would f**k that up as well. 

[Ridenfool]

I find the entertainment value of conspiracy theorists to be somewhat limited due to their penchant for taking things out of context. But, whatever floats your boat.

Sometimes you just have to look outside to see what is actually happening in the world, instead of following the endless gospel of such entertainers who thrive on generating controversy on YouTube by preying upon people unwilling or unable to fathom a greater depth toward verifying such claims.

You do realize that they make their living based on people clicking on their content, right? The more outlandish the story, the more clicks from their culture of followers. Which might actually be a conspiracy in itself 😲, or, at least a very clever business plan. 🤑

 

As for a solar-powered car, it is a matter of surface area, or, the lack thereof, based upon the output of current PV arrays.

There was a solar powered airplane that flew non-stop around the world. It had the wingspan of something like a 747 and the useful load of a Cessna.

There is also the Aptera car going into production that can charge itself while sitting in the sun to gain a few tens of miles a day, and will also plug into any NACS charger. If you don't drive very much and can park in the sun it could go indefinitely without being plugged into the charger.

Nobody is making any real effort to build a mass produced solar-powered car. Only to build electric cars that charge on a solar-powered source of energy. This would be the reference point from which to ascertain a practical context in order to validate your preferred source of information.

Edited March 22 by Ridenfool

[AntonioGG]

@ATXZJ  100% agree The greenest car there is, is the one you didn’t buy…I bought my EV when my 15yo Mazdaspeed3 (loved that car!) started having major issues.  At the time it just so happened Tesla was shipping cars and not bending you over like Ford and Toyota were doing.  I was also sick of ICE and their problems.  As an engineer, I know reliability is increased when I reduce the number of parts.  Also, I’m still a car guy and one hit of dual motor crack pipe and it’s impossible to go back to anything else.  Call that my selfish treat when I try to sacrifice in a lot of other areas.  I am not trading this car in 3 years.  I’m in it for the long run just like all my previous cars.  Similarly to cars, the greenest human is the one that wasn’t born.  

No arguing the greenest car for the average Texan is a PHEV.  For other places (geo or hydro) it’s an EV.  A gas F150 is greener than a Hummer EV.  

You are halfway there in finding facts.  Keep digging and crunch the numbers yourself don’t just believe your sources.  For example I agree with you for me with PEC it doesn’t make sense to buy my own solar panels, but that’s because the system is rigged.  They pay at 5.3 cents/kWh while I buy at 9.3 and they pay me the same 5.3 cents even if they are buying from dirty carbon peaker plants at $1500/kWh.  In Texas solar would make a lot of sense in the summer because it’s locally generated and locally used and reduces peak demand from dirty coal plants.  It’s also not necessary to worry about  storage either because most people will be using more than hey produce when it is more needed.   I have had thoughts to run for the PEC board to change this rigged system.  It would make much more sense to encourage distributed solar and buying at 9.3c/kWh

You’re a car guy so you must know the Engineering Explained channel.  He has a lot of factual content with whiteboard calculations.  I encourage you to watch his videos on all kinds of automotive subjects.

 

As to the earth’s climate cycles and regurgitation of George Carlin’s “the earth will shake us off like a bunch of fleas” yeah fine but global climate destabilization and the push to fight the tipping point is about saving humans not the earth in a geologic scale.

 

to bring this thread back on point, e-bikes are good.  I am definitely considering one for commuting.

[AntonioGG]

Oh, one more thing.  Being green and keeping things for a while sometimes goes against financial or life best interests.  I tracked my MS3’s expenses throughout its 15 years with me.  All repairs, maintenance, gas, fluids, etc.  most big repairs done by me.  I averaged $300 a month for the life of it including interest (low interest paid off in 2.5 years) opportunity cost, etc for something that I drove 8k miles a year or so on average and mostly sat around for 23.5 hours per day.  Incidentally, what broke me—from the car repair enthusiast perspective—as changing the clutch on that car:  turbo FWD with big transaxle and specialized components with no lift…it was a 2 weekend nightmare.  The $1700 quote sounded pretty good when I was in the middle of it.

[ATXZJ]

I'm down with buying an e-bike for the wife. I've had a total change of mind when it comes to ebikes over the last couple of years. Hopefully most dont end up in landfills once they go tits up.

Spending time in quebec, I can say that is one of the few places an EV makes sense AFA clean energy goes. Over 90% of their electricity comes from hydro. Something we'll never duplicate here, but their winters are very, very hard on EVs too.

Full disclosure: El Paso is one of the few cities in TX that's not a part of ERCOT. Our electric company is private, and we are still charged $30 monthly regardless of how much power we use. Solar does not make sense here unless it is at scale. IF we lived in the middle of nowhere in the SW i'd be down for going off the grid with solar , battery and a diesel backup. 

I've watched engineering explained. I enjoyed the "Why Gas Engines Are Far From Dead " episode.

This is my go-to engineering channel

https://www.youtube.com/@RealEngineering

 

 

@Ridenfool Multiple posts and you haven't answered the question of ships and planes. Those are biggest polluters with ZERO plan of how to solve that. The rest are semantics.

 

 

Edited March 22 by ATXZJ

[ATXZJ]

53 minutes ago, AntonioGG said:

@ATXZJ  100% agree The greenest car there is, is the one you didn’t buy…I bought my EV when my 15yo Mazdaspeed3 (loved that car!) started having major issues.  At the time it just so happened Tesla was shipping cars and not bending you over like Ford and Toyota were doing.  I was also sick of ICE and their problems.  As an engineer, I know reliability is increased when I reduce the number of parts.  Also, I’m still a car guy and one hit of dual motor crack pipe and it’s impossible to go back to anything else.  Call that my selfish treat when I try to sacrifice in a lot of other areas.  I am not trading this car in 3 years.  I’m in it for the long run just like all my previous cars.  Similarly to cars, the greenest human is the one that wasn’t born.  

 

 

This is my current issue with my wife's hybrid. She's had it 5 years and it has about 30k left on the warranty. She likes the idea of not having a car pmt but if ANYTHING powertrain related has an issue, we're fkd. To me biggest issue when buying new vehicles, particularly Hybrid/EVs is you keep having to turn them in because the repair cost is so high and the OS are so proprietary. Its like the automotive equivalent to someone going on TRT or ozempic and having to remain on it until they put you in the dirt.  Otherwise suffer the consequences of cold turkey. 

We are looking at a Lexus hybrid next as we'd feel more comfortable taking that to 100k and beyond since Toyota is dedicated to improving their platforms over decades. Not redesigning them every few years. In a perfect world we'd get her a 60-80k 2015-2018 RAV4 gas, but those are GONE and what's left are way overpriced. All this coming from a former 25yr Ford guy.

Speaking of Ford. I was a technician at Ford in 2000-2001 and we worked on their prototype battery ranger and fuel cell focus. The entire bed of the ranger was the battery and we replaced packs twice. The focus just rolled through for maintenance and we all joked that it was a rolling bomb, because at the time the focus had a really bad rollout. Our lot was full of brand new cars on jackstands during those Nasser days. 

[Ridenfool]

3 hours ago, ATXZJ said:

@Ridenfool Multiple posts and you haven't answered the question of ships and planes. Those are biggest polluters with ZERO plan of how to solve that. The rest is a wet dream

 

First of all, I wasn't having a conversation about ships and planes. You are who took it down that path. But, let's take a look.

 

Regarding your claim above, it may be that the biggest polluters per vehicle are aircraft and freighters. They are, after all, the largest vehicles. Simple physics tells us that will be true.

But, they are NOT the biggest polluters when total carbon emissions are viewed as a whole.

A quick search turned up how the transport sector makes up about 20-25% of annual carbon emissions on the planet.

Of the transport emissions:

• Road Travel accounts for about 75%
• Aircraft account for only 11.6%
• though unstated, this leaves 13.4% to cover everything else in the Transport category. Tractors, Ships, and other vehicles not on the road or in the air.

Per: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions-from-transport

 

Google is your friend, if you were to take a moment to fact-check your skewed resources.

For instance, there are already electric aircraft in production that operate competitively for domestic travel. They are beginning that transition to electric. Nobody can push a button to make it happen instantly, but, it will happen faster than most realize.

https://aviationacrossamerica.org/news/2022/03/03/electric-planes-are-coming-sooner-than-you-think/

https://spectrum.ieee.org/electric-airplane

Transoceanic Aircraft will have to wait until battery technology reduces the weight per energy-stored ratio to a point that the battery requirement leaves enough useful load for intercontinental flight to be profitable. They are getting closer all the time.

 

As for shipping over the sea, These applications are certainly in the works, and an easier challenge than are long-distance aircraft. Here's a link about an existing container ship that is electric and autonomous. I'm sure a smart fellow could dig up plenty more projects underway in a quick search.

https://electrek.co/2021/06/08/meet-the-worlds-first-electric-autonomous-container-ship/

Also, keep in mind that Tesla's Megapack battery storage system is shipping container sized. So, once set up for electric propulsion it would be easy-peasy to drop into existing container slots however many Megapacks are needed and hook up the jumper cables. Considering how the above-linked container ship article mentions it using the battery equivalent of 300 Tesla cars, I don't think it would take more than just a few Megapacks to get the job done.

 

It is only a matter of time for nearly all industries to be transitioned to electric by the convergence of the disruptive technologies which will eventually replace the need for fossil fuels.

The thing to focus on is how this transition is already in progress. The cost savings for going electric will continue to go down as economies of scale in production are realized.

Historically, such transitions happen on an S-Curve when charted. See the Tony Seba link earlier for an excellent presentation of the details.

For example, when transitioning from mostly horse and buggy use to mostly automobile use the transition happened in about ten years. It was so fast that the prior industry supporting horse and buggy collapsed. Same with other similar transitions. Wired phone to Smart phone, Radio to TV, introduction of the microwave oven, the personal computer, and how the internet disrupted previous technologies.

Such transitions will be driven more as a matter of operational cost reduction, convenience, and directly realized benefits than they will be about environmental concerns. In the case of electrification, carbon emission and toxic gas reduction are just a nice bonus that comes with it.

Edited March 22 by Ridenfool

[ATXZJ]

For the love of god just tell us you own stock in tesla

 

Edited March 22 by ATXZJ