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The Second Sign of the Apocalypse


AustinBike

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3 hours ago, mack_turtle said:

this is the kind of thing that makes me want to go full old man shaking fist at cloud rant. all these companies know exactly what they are doing, and they don't care. they will trot out a yearly sustainability report full of greenwashed nonsense. most of those batteries will end up in a landfill. a few of them will get tossed in municipal recycling bins, where they will start fires that injure workers and damage facilities (yes, this happens all time). I'd be curious to know how many of them are properly recycled. recycling is one of the least impactful ways to reduce waste, but for things like this, the damage has already been done and it's the best way.

Hit the nail on the head. The greenwashing and virtue signaling these days makes me want to vomit. Overconsumption is the main issue and altering that would hurt our consumer based economy. Shit isn't gonna change in our kids or grandkids lifetimes. 

 Pessimistic old man rant off.

 

On a positive note, there's a little good news on the Ebike front:

https://www.pinkbike.com/news/intra-drives-combined-motor-and-gearbox-fits-bikes-designed-for-shimano-ep8.html

Edited by ATXZJ
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You lost me with "Scottish startup."

Scottish manufacturer? Sure.

Scottish machining? Not so much.

Well funded technology startup? Sure (probably, depends on the funding...)

When it comes to precision machining, I'll take Germany, Switzerland, Austria, most of Eastern Europe, Japan, South Korea. I leave China out of that list because their machining is only as good as the people standing over them. Apple does a good job because they have tight engineering standards and stand over them all day long. But if you don't have someone watching the process and you are only sending the specs and doing quality checks when they arrive, you're fucked.

And while the the article says that it fits the same physical space/specs, it is unclear if it is licensed. If it is licensed, it will be very hard for a startup to compete with Shimano. If it is not licensed, I'm sure they will let them ship up to a certain  point and then come down hard with the lawyers. Basically let them prove out a manufacturing concept then push them into an expensive licensing to make the whole thing go away. Anyone that they were selling the design to will now be far enough down the road that they will need to pay Shimano. I think this is called "DW-Linking".

Edited by AustinBike
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On 12/12/2023 at 12:45 PM, AustinBike said:

You lost me with "Scottish startup."

Scottish manufacturer? Sure.

Scottish machining? Not so much.

There are a good number of UK companies making well-machined parts: Hope, Works Components, Uberbike, Absolute Black - to name but a few. I don't see the need to be so negative.

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Those companies are all in England, not Scotland. And Absoluteblack manufactures most of their stuff in Poland.

There are plenty of great things about Scotland and I would also bet that the Czech Republic would probably make a really shitty whisky and Germany's Haggis is probably inedible. But their precision machining is first rate.

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I think my point is, it's good someone is starting to address the need for aftermarket support with e-bikes. Fezzari is now selling frame/motor only options and hopefully others will follow suit. It has to start somewhere.

https://fezzari.com/pages/build?bike=timp

 

Lastly. As someone whos worked in the auto industry for 30+ years, I can say that the Germans are far from killing it when it comes to quality. 

Edited by ATXZJ
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16 hours ago, ATXZJ said:

I think my point is, it's good someone is starting to address the need for aftermarket support with e-bikes. Fezzari is now selling frame/motor only options and hopefully others will follow suit. It has to start somewhere.

https://fezzari.com/pages/build?bike=timp

 

Lastly. As someone whos worked in the auto industry for 30+ years, I can say that the Germans are far from killing it when it comes to quality. 

Nippon Denso >>>>> Bosch automotive.  

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On 12/14/2023 at 2:28 PM, AustinBike said:

Those companies are all in England, not Scotland. And Absoluteblack manufactures most of their stuff in Poland.

There are plenty of great things about Scotland and I would also bet that the Czech Republic would probably make a really shitty whisky and Germany's Haggis is probably inedible. But their precision machining is first rate.

Typical Teutonic nonsense. Maybe give em a chance before you rush to judge?

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On 12/14/2023 at 5:59 PM, ATXZJ said:

I think my point is, it's good someone is starting to address the need for aftermarket support with e-bikes. 

What they need is standards so that you get longevity. I used to sell $99 CPUs all day long to OEMs. But the same embedded part that needed a long lifecycle and long-term support was waaaaay more than $99. 

The real challenge with any bikes is that the average rider is not going to burn through the wear and tear in a short period of time. My Orbea has ~4200 miles in a little over 4 years. So that is 1000 miles per year, and still kicking. I have stockpiled hangers, bolts and other proprietary components because they stopped making many of them over a year ago. And that is a bike with a pretty decent shipment range.

Specialized and Trek could merit stockpiling motors for downstream service needs based on their volumes. Not sure Fezzari can support the volume to make that viable, it's a pretty large capital outlay for things that are going to die once they accumulate enough wear. 

It is a capital game far more than a technical game. If you can standardize you can minimize the capital outlays and have better chance. Also, amortizing a part over multiple years of models helps greatly, but so many of these are platform specific and change each year because there is no standard to build around.

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Riders will buy used E-bikes and will need aftermarket support. Just like the current bike market. All it takes is a demand, which there inevitably will be, and the aftermarket will create the product. Seeing these new developments come out is encouraging. 

My point on Fezzari is I can now buy an E-bike frame with powertrain and swap all my other components over off my regular bikes. That's a win and will hopefully catch on with other brands, making owning an ebike more of a possibility to a lot more riders that want one. 

With professional Enduro on its way out, and E-enduro taking over there will be a surge of development, at least for a short time until people don't tune in to watch, or show up to the races. You can thank the UCI for that. 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...

I would think that any insurance company is going to set rates based on the probability of something happening. Fire in a traditional shop is probably pretty low. Fire in a shop with top line bikes is higher. Fire in a shop with any kind of bike is going to be the highest.

I'd bet that shops will also limit what they will work on based on their insurance, so if someone does buy the cheap knock off, it may be more expensive to get it repaired. I could see a shop agreeing to only work on approved platforms in order to get some break in liability insurance.

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21 minutes ago, AustinBike said:

I would think that any insurance company is going to set rates based on the probability of something happening. Fire in a traditional shop is probably pretty low. Fire in a shop with top line bikes is higher. Fire in a shop with any kind of bike is going to be the highest.

I'd bet that shops will also limit what they will work on based on their insurance, so if someone does buy the cheap knock off, it may be more expensive to get it repaired. I could see a shop agreeing to only work on approved platforms in order to get some break in liability insurance.

Yeah, my policy would be only UL/CSA/CE etc listed platforms indoors.  Maybe only work on the cheap bikes (mechanical stuff only) outdoors on the spot while customer waits.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Seems like a step in the right direction. E-bikes like that hardtail are essential for trail maintenance in remote and steep places like el paso. I've been pushing the local trail stewards to start looking at these hardtails for maintenance volunteers. You can get way more work done in a shorter amount of time, for a small investment by the local trail advocacy groups. Particularly when they are bringing people from all over to race 50 miles through the franklin mountains and dodging overgrown cactus and dead pigs. 

I can also say after the last few rides, a lightweight FS e-bike is definitely on the wife's radar if we're going to stay here for a while.

Another competitively priced option

 https://www.bikesonline.com/polygon-siskiu-t6e-all-mountain-ebike-size-xl~8114769?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAiAq4KuBhA6EiwArMAw1DdZr2DkKO8hs715--HM3V_ECprcmlcUs3-1V4E7a_pTZglG4wmk7xoCpNAQAvD_BwE

 

 

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Edited by ATXZJ
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Kudos to those who dedicate themselves to maintaining a high fitness level and enjoying their Acoustic bikes. These riders are at the top level of mtb riders, and always have been in the minority of the overall number of riders.

However, the "different blend of the population" mentioned above is actually the majority of riders when considering who are the mtb-riding public the manufacturers are selling to.

Price parity will be the deciding factor for many when it comes time to buy. For a new rider, or, an existing rider that wants to ride more and finds it tough to maintain the fitness required, they are likely to find an electric Class 1 alternative within their budget. This effect of price reduction will only improve over time as economies of scale contribute to lowering the costs to manufacture.

An e-mtb offers a wider range of users the joys we all love about riding trails. To most, this would be considered a good thing to have more people enjoying trails, and I hope the trend to acceptance by those who take umbrage toward e-mtb riders can become easier as more of their friends make the shift.

The growing trend of e-mtb adoption and new Class 1 model offerings from every manufacturer who wants to stay in business indicates a potential for inevitability of e-mtb sales eventually outpacing standard bike sales. At least among the crowd who purchase bikes by size and fit to their body.

This is a transition, which is occurring due to a disruptive technology being introduced. Much like the conversion from flip-phone to smart phone; chemical camera to digital; cathode-ray TV to flat screen; or horse and buggy to automobile. The list of examples for technology disruptions is very, very long, and they all have in common an exponential growth curve.

Happy trails

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  • 2 weeks later...

Those bikes are all over the place here and they use bike paths, but it doesn't bother me.  It's one less car on the road and I don't think any of those people would pedal anyway.  Same with people using golf carts in my hood to pick-up their kids from school.  It's an EV and takes up less room, weighs less, and doesn't hit as hard as a 6000lbs suburban.

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  • 1 month later...

Listened to an interestig piece on  NPR discussing the shift to battery-powered cars and the price paid by the people who live where the raw materials are mined and the ecological impact of mining those materials vs the impression that battery power is completely green and clean.  

But, I digress.  These last few weeks, I've really started looking at e-bikes, knowing one is in my future.  Advancing age + difficulty in recovering due to some health issues + plus the side effects of medication for those health issues  -- I'm there.  My main concern is how long a ride will a battery support because I'd like to use one for short, overnight bikepacking trips that would likely be on two-track or bladed roads with no options to stock up on water. Yup, we're talking SE Utah and SW Colorado.  

Thanks for the TREK Marlin link, it looks like a possibility, but I'll be looking around.  A few weeks ago I did find a website on hardtail e-bikes, comparing battery storage capacity. 

 

 

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